Monthly Archives: November 2019

Step Back – Define the Edges – and Wait

 

Let's talk about recovery from a poor start to a trading session.

Like this one…

<image: Step Back - Define the Edges - and Wait>

<image: Step Back - Define the Edges - and Wait>

<image: Step Back - Define the Edges - and Wait>

<image: Step Back - Define the Edges - and Wait>

So here's the plan in three stages…

<image: Step Back - Define the Edges - and Wait>

<image: Step Back - Define the Edges - and Wait>

<image: Step Back - Define the Edges - and Wait>

<image: Step Back - Define the Edges - and Wait>

<image: Step Back - Define the Edges - and Wait>

Whenever you step away from a chart and miss a sequence of price action, you can almost always look back at it with hindsight and see opportunity that you could have taken.

Ignore it.

It wasn't yours to take.

When you've started a session poorly and have struggled to get in sync with the price movement, your job is to step back and clear your mind. Any opportunity you miss during that period of recovery is irrelevant. Let it go.

Step back. Clear your mind.

Define the edges of the structure which caused you problems.

And then wait until price has broken that structure and the market has shown you the directional bias.

Only then is it time to trade.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Traps Just Before RTH Open – 3

 

This has been a favourite topic of mine throughout the last year. We explored the idea here and here, along with a bunch of other examples on social media.

But then the market just keeps providing more examples.

So let's look one more time.

The general concept is a trap that occurs through failure of a significant break, very late in the pre-session market and just before RTH Open (RTH = Regular Trading Hours; ie. the pit session).

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

Our most recent example fits in the second category – a break to new overnight highs, failing on or shortly after the session open, giving us opportunity to enter SHORT.

Let's begin… with the NQ 1 minute chart on Friday 15th November, 2019.

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

<image: Traps Just Before RTH Open>

I've written a lot about displaying patience at the open. About waiting till the bias is clear and trading conditions are favourable.

But there are some situations where I don't display patience.

Where I'm keen to get a trade on as soon as I can.

No patience. No delays. It's game on!

One of these situations is when the market sets up a trap just before or just after the RTH Open.

Keep an eye out for similar opportunity in your own trading.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

One Winner One Loser

 

A question received last Monday: "Are you trading today? It's a holiday but the market is open."

For future readers… Monday was 11th November 2019. Veterans Day.

And yes, the economic calendar which I use also has this listed as a US holiday. But the market is definitely open all day (or at least the index futures which I trade).

Here's my plan for holidays, because as the question noted, there are different kinds of holidays:

  • Holidays where the market is closed – no trading!  (Duh!)
  • Holidays where the market is open for one of those "half day" sessions – no trading! I don't care if it does move. That's the low probability outcome. More likely it will be dull, lifeless, narrow range chop.
  • Holidays where the market is open all day – My preference is to avoid it, but if I've got nothing better to do then let the opening structure play out and then make an assessment.

 

I had nothing better to do. So I let the opening structure play out. And then assessed.

How much opening structure? There's no rule here. Make an judgment call as to how much is necessary to see if there is sufficient liquidity, pace, volatility etc.

If the market opens with a gap outside the prior day's range, and outside any higher timeframe congestion, I might be satisfied just with the opening TTF price swing, or just waiting a short time period like 5-15 minutes. Then assessing.

Or on days like today, where the market opened within the prior days range, I will wait a bit longer.

<image: One Winner One Loser>

 

I was completely comfortable with no trades. But if I could see edge, then let's play.

<image: One Winner One Loser>

<image: One Winner One Loser>

 

For readers of the YTC Price Action Trader – The Principle being applied here, and in fact the reason for the whole trade, should be obvious. If not, email me.

<image: One Winner One Loser>

<image: One Winner One Loser>

<image: One Winner One Loser>

<image: One Winner One Loser>

<image: One Winner One Loser>

<image: One Winner One Loser>

 

One winner. And one loser. Just a small day, but it is a "holiday" session and I'm happy with nothing.

Of great importance though – the loser is much smaller in size than the winner.

Which reminds me of one of the most important points I've shared over the years at YTC, accepting of course that a two trade sample size is way too small (but the concept is what is important)… what if you could be happy with a 50% win rate, and learn to profit from a positive Win/Loss Size Ratio?

Ok, so back to the main point of the article:

Here's my plan for holidays, because as the question noted, there are different kinds of holidays:

  • Holidays where the market is closed – no trading!  (Duh!)
  • Holidays where the market is open for one of those "half day" sessions – no trading! I don't care if it does move. That's the low probability outcome. More likely it will be dull, lifeless, narrow range chop.
  • Holidays where the market is open all day – My preference is to avoid it, but if I've got nothing better to do then let the opening structure play out and then make an assessment.

 

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart

 

I was recently asked on Twitter about my pre-session analysis. My response was simply that I've outlined the process in detail in the YTC Price Action Trader.

However, since publication, I have added a couple of minor steps. Let's look at one today.

It occurs just once a day, right at the beginning of my analysis process.

It involves the daily chart. And about 5 to 10 seconds of work.

Not for levels, or structure, or trend. We get those from our normal Higher Timeframe (HTF) and Trading Timeframe (TTF) charts.

The daily is used to provide a "best guess" as to the potential range of movement we can expect in the upcoming session.

There is no great accuracy required. I don't need to get it right within a small number of ticks. It's just a quick assessment based upon experience. Part of building our bigger-picture contextual awareness.

It allows me to operate throughout the day with some sense for whether the market has more room to move, or whether the market is possibly close to it's expected range already.

This is the chart layout I use:

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

 

Let's have a look at how it is constructed.

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

 

And the Three Step process for using this data.

 

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

<image: Pre-Session Analysis Starts with the Daily Chart>

Summary:

  1. My expectation for today's potential range starts as the Average Daily Range.
  2. I increase this slightly in an expansion environment, and decrease slightly during contraction.
  3. And adjust again as required, if a quick assessment of daily price action suggests good potential for either a wide-range trend day or narrow-range consolidation.

 

And of course, update throughout the day as more data unfolds.

Don't expect perfection.

It's just "background" contextual information that can be used as an input to your trade selection and trade management decisions.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

5 Steps for Daily Improvement

 

The following screen capture was sent out via social media a fortnight ago.

I think it's so important that I want this to go out to everyone on the newsletter list as well. Plus an entry into the blog for future readers.

It's a quick response to an exceptional question – what are five things I do every day which have got me to where I am.

Thanks Alessandro. Great question!

Enjoy…

<image: 5 Steps for Daily Improvement>

Add these steps into your process, if they're not already there.

And repeat.

Every day.

This is the path to trading success – incremental improvements in skill driven by a quality review process.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs