Monthly Archives: February 2020

High Volatility – Thoughts for Developing Traders

 

We have been blessed with some absolutely amazing markets lately.

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

Incredible daily ranges. Incredible opportunity.

And incredible risk, if not played wisely.

So while it's tempting to use today's article as an ego-boosting review of a couple of winning trades, that's not really what motivates me with my YTC writing.

I'm more concerned about your journey. I want you to succeed LONG-TERM. And I'm worried that right now there is more potential for damage than there is good.

So today – something a little different and perhaps unexpected.

For the developing traders… the ones who are still working towards either finding their edge or consistently applying their edge… I'm going to try to talk you out of trading these markets.

This week's action is already gone. But I have a suspicion that there is more volatility to come. And even if I'm wrong and it's all over for now, there will again be times in the future when markets crash and this article can make a timely comeback.

Here is what I'm thinking:

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

I'd be impressed if I received this email or private message: "Lance, I've worked my backside off for the last year and managed to grind out wins every week for the last quarter. But this last week – I've stood aside. I'm not ready for that pace yet."

This would not impress me at all: "Lance, these markets are frickin' awesome. My trading has been crap for months, but I just smashed it today. $5000 profits. I think I've finally turned a corner and have got this game worked out."

I'd back the first trader to succeed long term, over the second.

Repeating…

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

Trading is never compulsory. At any time if you feel the conditions are beyond your current levels of skill and experience, then the RIGHT decision is to stand aside.

However this does not mean you close up shop for the day. There is still valuable work to be done in building experience and expanding your skill levels, so that when these conditions return again in the future you will be ready and able to thrive in the opportunity they present.

So here's the plan:

  • Put aside any feelings of FOMO. One day these will be your markets, but not today. Let it go.
  • And use these sessions SOLELY as learning opportunities.

 

There are many options for learning:

  • Do not trade at all. Simply follow the market attempting to stay in sync with the price flow. Build confidence in your ability to not only read the current trend but to also keep your mind ahead of the market, through projecting the current trend forward and identifying the most probable future path.
  • Or SIM trade, if you feel you've already advanced beyond that first idea. Build skill in trading at these new levels of pace and volatility, without risking actual funds.
  • Or maybe a combination of the two. Watch price live, but record data so that you can trade key sequences through post-session repay.

 

I'm sure you can come up with numerous other options.

The key point is…

Trading is optional. Learning is not.

Maybe I'm wrong. But I don't think so. You know your own level of skill and experience and are big enough and old enough to make your own decisions. Perhaps you think you'll be fine in these markets. All I ask is you consider the risk. Play these markets wrong, and let them put you into tilt where you start compounding bad decision after bad decision, and these sessions can destroy you.

We often know when we're about to have one of these high volatility days. The gaps overnight and the news leading into the session made it obvious that Monday and Tuesday were going to be highly emotional sessions. There is little to lose by choosing to stand aside. Choose to focus your live trading on more "normal" sessions. And use these higher volatility sessions as a learning opportunity.

It's your choice though.

So having said that, let me add a few thoughts for those who do trade these sessions:

  • Structure your trading so that individual trade risk and session risk still fit within their normal parameters. This will typically require reducing position sizes and widening stops, in order to cater for the greatly increased volatility. Some may also prefer reductions in chart timeframes, noting that this can create its own challenges through speeding up the whole process.
  • Don't get stuck in "prediction mode". The market doesn't care where you think it should be going. Even in a crash, the market can have massive rips higher. Ensure that your game plan is visualised pre-session and you have clear guidelines for how to recognise the ACTUAL direction of the market and how to align with that direction, despite what you feel it should be doing.
  • Recognise that the simpler opportunity is almost always going to be WITH the market direction, not against. If you're a counter-trend trader, consider countering the pullbacks for continuation in the larger session-bias direction.
  • Before placing any trade, KNOW WHERE YOU ARE WRONG. And do not hold beyond that point. Standard practice really, but especially important in these environments.
  • And finally, most importantly of all, never forget that your number one aim each and every day is to SURVIVE TO TRADE ANOTHER DAY.

 

Take care out there,

Lance Beggs

 

PS. At the risk of repeating everything above, let me share the post that was sent out Monday morning prior to the open. (Sign up for YTC social media here)

<image: High Volatility - Be Careful Out There>

 


 

When the Pullback moves TOO DEEP TOO FAST

 

Let's look at a trade from Tuesday which was quite challenging to take.

One in which the pullback moves too deep… and WAY TOO FAST.

One which triggers the question in your mind – "Is this a pullback or is it the start of a complete reversal?"

Every trader is familiar with this feeling! It's NOT nice.

Let's look at how I timed the entry.

First though – a little context via the 15 minute timeframe:

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

I love an open like this. A real shock to the system. And potential for emotion to drive price with strong directional conviction.

I am secretly hoping for strong continuation lower. Blood in the water. Panic selling driving a massive trend day lower.

But I've been around long enough to know that this is not the only option from a large gap down.

Social media posts on Tuesday and Wednesday covered this. (Facebook: Tuesday, Wednesday. Twitter: Tuesday, Wednesday)

So let's look to the 1 minute Trading Timeframe chart to see the opening price sequence.

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

For readers of the YTC Price Action Trader, please refer to Volume 3, Chapter 4, page 81.

Note the very first item listed under the title "Entry Preconditions".

Candlesticks A to C do NOT satisfy this entry precondition requirement.

Following the pop higher with D, price then attempts a second push lower at E.

This candle (E) DOES satisfy the entry precondition requirement.

Take the trade!

Also – Page 89, Figure 4.65 (part 3 of 4). The third diagram is the LTF entry pattern.

<image: When the Pullback moves too deep too fast...>

Our plan is to understand the trend structure, project it forward and identify potential trade opportunity (should subsequent price movement confirm our projection).

Often though, price will decide to present us with something a little different.

No problem!

PAUSE & REASSESS.

If you find you're out of sync with the price movement and it doesn't make sense, then stand aside and wait for further price structure to develop.

But otherwise, you have processes in place. Carry them out again with this new information. Recognise the changes. Adapt. And take action.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Enter LONG When it Can’t Go Lower

 

Today let's look at the art of entry timing… with one of my favourite ways to get into the market.

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

<image: Enter LONG when it can't go lower>

It's not the only way to enter. But it's one I love.

If the market can print a candle (or sequence of candles) which strongly suggest that "it's moving lower".

But then can't.

Enter LONG when it can't go lower!

Happy Trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Step Back and Reassess

 

Let's start with a daily chart to get some "bigger picture" context…

<image: Step back and Reassess>

<image: Step back and Reassess>

And now down to the trading timeframe…

<image: Step back and Reassess>

A little side note regarding the entry: While it may not be immediately obvious, this trade is a variation on the YTC Price Action Trader PB Setup. The pullback is all occurring within the one single TTF candle (in this case the green one prior to entry). While that is not ideal and we would prefer to see an actual pullback of at least 2 or 3 candles on the TTF, the fact remains that in an opening momentum drive this is often all you will get. So we either miss out entirely, or adapt. In an opening drive, I'll be looking to the LTF data for the first pullback. Everything else (eg. LWP entry timing) is as per normal.

<image: Step back and Reassess>

<image: Step back and Reassess>

<image: Step back and Reassess>

<image: Step back and Reassess>

<image: Step back and Reassess>

<image: Step back and Reassess>

<image: Step back and Reassess>

<image: Step back and Reassess>

<image: Step back and Reassess>

If you've lost all feel for what is happening in the chart…

(1) Step back.

(2) Define the edges of the structure.

(3) And wait.

Whatever happens within that no-trade zone, is none of your concern.

Let it break and then reassess.

Only then, if the market structure and price movement makes sense, is it game on.

Assess the trend structure. Project it forward. Identify your opportunity. And strike!

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs