About: Lance Beggs

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Recent Posts by Lance Beggs

When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration!

 

Let's start with the daily chart for a bit of context…

I know right! When was the last time we looked at a daily chart?

No need to panic. Oxygen masks have not dropped from the ceiling. And we'll only spend a short time at these heights.

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration>

You know those days where you've got a feeling in your gut that tells you the market is DEFINITELY setting up a trap?

Well my Trap Radar had activated and the alarm was deafening.

My gut feel was "It's a trap! Fade the market!"

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration>

So let's step down from these heights and get back to the more comfortable Trading Timeframe and watch the opening sequence play out…

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration>

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration>

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration>

Here's the thing…

Way back in the early days I would have shorted this thing at every swing high, grinding my way towards the session stop.

But not now.

I recognise that it's normal to have these strong gut feelings from time to time.

Some people say to ignore them. I don't think we can. Nor do I think we should. Sometimes they're right.

I listen to it. I consider what it's saying. And I plan my trading in case it's right.

BUT… I also have a plan for those times it's wrong.

Having a gut feeling about market bias is fine.

But alongside that you must know the following:

(a) What price action would confirm this bias. And how you will trade it.

(b) What price action would indicate that the bias is wrong. And how you will trade it.

Let's step back to the open:

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration>

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration>

So having pre-accepted the potential for my gut feeling to be invalid, I was easily able to drop it and reassess the market structure.

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration>

For PB and CPB descriptions, see here.

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration>

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration> 

<image: When your Trap Radar needs Recalibration> 

Repeating the key points:

Having a gut feeling about market bias is fine.

But alongside that you must know the following:

(a) What price action would confirm this bias. And how you will trade it.

(b) What price action would indicate that the bias is wrong. And how you will trade it.

One of the greatest habits you can get into is always considering, "What if I'm wrong?" 

You are NOT smarter than the market. If it's not confirming your gut feeling, then YOU are wrong. Drop that bias and realign with what is actually happening.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Trend Change Study

 

Do you ever experience the joy that comes from watching a price sequence develop and feeling that it is just technically "beautiful"?

No? Maybe it's just me.

But I do really love this sequence.

And I think it is a good one for those new to the YTC Price Action Trader methodology who might still be getting used to the ideas of strength and weakness analysis.

Sorry for those who don't have the YTC Price Action Trader. This article won't be relevant. We'll get back to usual programming next week!

Here's the price sequence we're going to study:

<image: Trend Change Study>

Click here if you wish to open a larger chart image in your browser. Or right click to download.

Pattern traders call this a Rounded Top.

For me, it's a transition from Uptrend to Sideways Trend (very briefly) and then into Downtrend.

But what makes it great for review is the fact that the whole transition occurs in slow motion, with gradual changes from swing to swing, rather than a sudden and dramatic break of structure.

Price just rolls slowly over from Uptrend… to Sideways… and to Downtrend.

So… study time!

A primary aim in my own personal trading is to get "in sync" with the price movement. This is not just assessing the trend direction as up, down or sideways. But at a deeper level, aligning myself and connecting with the underlying bullish or bearish sentiment within the trend. The result being a strong sense for whether the trend itself is stable, or perhaps weakening, stalling or at risk of reversing.

The aim of this exercise: To start developing these same skills through studying a reversal price sequence, identifying the signs within the swing structure that could have helped you sense the trend weakening and rolling over eventually into a new downtrend.

Please note: (a) Our concern is NOT with how this structure might be traded. Just with keeping yourself aligned with price as it flows. (b) And while we recognise that we're missing the "feel" that comes from watching this occur live, there is still value for new traders in historical chart study. Knowing what to look for is step one. Then we progress to learning to see it unfold in real-time.

Let's go:

1. Examine the price swings as they move from start to finish, using only one single method of strength and weakness analysis at a time.

(a) Momentum slope – bullish swing comparison

(b) Momentum slope – bearish swing comparison

(c) Projection

(d) Depth

Take note of any signs that each method might offer, alerting you to a weakening of the uptrend and gradual rolling over into a downtrend. (Noting of course that not every swing gives clear evidence of change. You're looking for gradual changes across multiple price swings.)

Now let's try to make it a little more realistic…

2. Real analysis, conducted in real-time at the hard right edge of the charts, actually considers all methods of strength and weakness analysis as a whole. So this time, step through the chart swing by swing and let all four methods create a "picture" in your mind. Allow yourself to feel the uptrend weakening, rolling over to the sideways. And then again rolling over to a downtrend.

If you want to review the text first, refer to sections 3.3.1 and 3.3.2 (pages 113 to 144).

If you have a couple of hours to spare you may feel like replaying the sequence (NQ, 3rd June 2019). But for those of us with better things to be doing on the weekend, simply stepping swing by swing through the chart from left to right should provide sufficient learning opportunity.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Traps at the Open – 2

 

I had no plans to continue the recent article series but the market had different ideas, so here we are!

First, if you missed the prior articles then see here – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/traps-just-before-rth-open/

And here – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/traps-at-the-open/

And that brings us to today's sequence…

We'll start with a quick look at the prior day and overnight session, for a bit of "bigger picture" context.

<image: Traps at the Open>

<image: Traps at the Open>

<image: Traps at the Open>

<image: Traps at the Open>

<image: Traps at the Open>

<image: Traps at the Open>

<image: Traps at the Open>

<image: Traps at the Open>

<image: Traps at the Open>

<image: Traps at the Open>

I hesitated to show this example, as it's really a very quick and small trap. And a difficult entry based on a very minor lower-timeframe stall.

But sometimes that is all the market offers. And given the potential for a trap at the open to provide a nice momentum drive, it's one that I had to take.

Part of me wonders whether I'd take this entry anyway even if there had not been a trap. I had a bullish bias due to the pre-session action holding above the prior day's range. Plus the fact that I expected some range expansion on the open following a narrow range holiday session.

We'll never know for sure. Perhaps I would have taken it. I suspect not though. The lower timeframe trigger pattern was a little "smaller" and less defined than I would perhaps have liked. It really was the presence of the trap, albeit small, that provided the confidence to go for it.

For me… a trap entry prior to or right on the open is something that will often have me taking the quick early trade. Without that, I prefer to sit and wait. Let any opening congestion clear itself. Let the structure develop. And then trade once I have some clarity regarding the bias and market conditions.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Traps at the Open

 

Our last article discussed one of the times when I show no patience at the open. One of the times when I'm keen to get a trade on as soon as I can.

No patience. No delays. It's game on!

You can see it here if you missed it – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/traps-just-before-rth-open/

That article dealt with a trap in the market structure JUST BEFORE the RTH open. (RTH = Regular Trading Hours)

Today let's look at a situation very closely related to that. It's a trap IMMEDIATELY AFTER the RTH open. It's another situation in which I don't wait for the market to establish a clear trend structure.

Here was the concept from last week:

<image: Traps JUST BEFORE the Open>

But what if the open comes… and the market hasn't provided that trap?

<image: Traps JUST AFTER the Open>

That's fine.

If it's a good level, I prepare myself for for a trap anyway in the opening few price bars. If the market is nice enough to offer that, I'll be ready to get in on the first available opportunity.

<image: Traps JUST AFTER the Open>

Let's look at an example…

<image: Traps JUST AFTER the Open>

<image: Traps JUST AFTER the Open>

<image: Traps JUST AFTER the Open>

<image: Traps JUST AFTER the Open>

<image: Traps JUST AFTER the Open>

Personal preference – I don't just hit BUY MARKET. I prefer to find a way to better control risk through certain TTF/LTF patterns, as outlined in the YTC Price Action Trader.

If I miss the move, so be it. Let it go. It wasn't mine to catch.

But otherwise, remain patient and watch for a retest of the range highs.

<image: Traps JUST AFTER the Open>

If ever in doubt about the structure of the market, don't rush to trade. There is no hurry. Let the market open and complete the first swing or two. Let the structure develop and then trade once you have some clarity.

But sometimes, when the pre-market sets up just right, there will be opportunity available within that opening sequence.

One of my favourites is a trap in the market structure, setting up just before, or just after the market open.

Keep an eye out for this concept, in your market and your timeframes.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Traps just before RTH Open

 

I've written a lot about displaying patience at the open. About waiting till the bias is clear and trading conditions are favourable.

But there are some situations where I don't display patience.

Where I'm keen to get a trade on as soon as I can.

No patience. No delays. It's game on!

One of these situations is when the market sets up a trap just before or just after the RTH Open. (RTH = Regular Trading Hours).

Today we'll look at an example which sets up just before the open.

Here's the general concept:

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

This concept can be applied in any market which offers pre-session trading leading into a clearly defined "regular" day session. Spot forex traders might apply it at the UK open, or the US open.

This example set up a break of the overnight low. Here's what I was seeing:

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

(YTC PAT FTC Ref: Vol 2, Ch 3, P143))

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

<image: Traps just before RTH Open>

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs