Category Archives: Trader

Trader – In this category our interest is in exploring all aspects of peak human performance, including: (a) Examination of the human body and mind and the ways that they impact upon our trading results, both positively and negatively. (b) Exploration of learning theory and the ways to maximise the development of knowledge and skill.

It’s Not About Being Right

 

One of the great things about being involved in trading education is that it provides me with the ability to chat with a LOT of developing traders.

Common themes appear over time. This is one of them…

"Can you review this trade. It's a trade idea which I thought was good, but it just didn't work out."

They want to know where they failed with their analysis or decision making. They want to know what they did wrong.

But often, there was nothing wrong with their analysis or decision making.

Here's the reality of this game – we won't always get it right.

But we don't have to.

That is not what this game is about.

I can understand it. We're wired that way. We like to win. We don't like to lose.

We like to be right in our analysis and trade decisions. We don't like to be wrong.

And there's a whole technical analysis and trading education industry out there, which promises to "show you how to find winning trades".

But that's not what this game is about.

It's not about being right.

Not EVERY TIME.

It's about profiting over a SERIES OF TRADES.

A series that includes both winning trades AND losing trades.

It's about ensuring that when you are right you take as much out of the market as you can. And when you're wrong you cut the loss as much and as quickly as you can. So that, when the whole series of trades is done, the end result is a profit.

Let's look at a very short series of trades from Wednesday night. It's a sequence in Crude Oil which occurred in the hour immediately following the Crude Oil Inventories report.

This is a very low timeframe. And it's high volatility, fast pace stuff. Don't be put off by that if you trade other markets, other timeframes, or in fact other strategies. The concept still applies. It's not about being right. It's about managing the winners and losers such that you profit over a series of trades.

In this sequence, EVERY TRADE ENTRY DECISION I MADE, EXCEPT ONE, WAS WRONG.

But it still provides a profit.

It's not about being right!

This was the only entry decision that actually worked out according to plan

Arrgggggh! Wrong direction!

Wrong!

Wrong!

And wrong again!

And yet the whole sequence shows a profit!

Stop trying to be right.

Instead, try to find the places on the chart where you can win bigger (when right) than you lose (when wrong).

It's only a slight shift in perspective. But it makes a massive difference in how you see this game.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 

Related Articles:

 


 

Why Did I Not Enter Short on Rejection from Resistance?

 

This short article is to share some excellent Q&A following our recent series on "patience".

Check out the prior articles if you missed them:

Part 1 – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trader/patience-is-a-key-component-of-your-edge-part-1/

Part 2 – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trader/patience-is-a-key-component-of-your-edge-part-2/

In particular, it relates to last week's trade sequence:

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

 

Q. Why did I not enter SHORT on the initial rejection of session high resistance?

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

I was really happy to get this question. It shows people are thinking!  🙂

Here's an excerpt from the email:

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A Tactical Withdrawal

 

This short article is to share some excellent Q&A following our recent series on "patience".

Check out the prior articles if you missed them:

Part 1 – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trader/patience-is-a-key-component-of-your-edge-part-1/

Part 2 – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trader/patience-is-a-key-component-of-your-edge-part-2/

In particular, it relates to the period of "emotional reaction" in last week's trade sequence:

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

 

Q. Won't I be annoyed if I don't take a third attempt short and the market moves lower without me?

So this is what we're talking about here:

This is what happened

But what if this happened

Would I be annoyed?

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Patience is a Key Component of your Edge (Part 2)

 

Last week we discussed the idea that PATIENCE plays an important role in trading.

A key component of edge comes from recognising and accepting that you do NOT have to trade every price sequence.

When the bias is unclear, stand aside or trade another market.

When the pace of price flow is too fast or too slow for your liking, stand aside or trade another market.

When the price action is choppy rather than flowing smoothly, stand aside or trade another market.

And we looked at an example in which I waited on the sidelines for over an hour, before finding price movement that was screaming out to be traded. Good pace, good structure and easier to read. Something that I felt nicely in sync with.

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

Check out that article first, if you missed it – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trader/patience-is-a-key-component-of-your-edge-part-1/..

So I closed out that article by promising that we would discuss another session in which I did not act with good patience, but instead reacted emotionally and chased opportunity where there was none.

In fact, it happened the day immediately following our prior example.

The session started in a quite similar fashion with a strong bearish drive. My expectations were exactly the same – look for PB/CPB trade opportunity.

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

YTC Price Action Trader references:

The First and Second Principles – Volume 2, Page 145-148

The PB & CPB Setups – Volume 3, Pages 34-40

The market pulled higher to offer the first trade entry.

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

I should have got it. But I didn't.

That's fine. Let it go.

Let's see what follows…

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Patience is a Key Component of your Edge (Part 1)

 

You might recall this previous article which talks about the fact that the real source of my edge is not my strategy, but rather it's me. The knowledge, the skill and the attitude which I bring to the market each day.

I'd like to touch on a part of this edge today and then again in a followup article next week.

In particular just one simple idea.

The fact that PATIENCE plays a key role in this game.

A key component of my edge is in recognising and accepting that I do NOT have to trade every price sequence.

The same applies to you. You do NOT have to trade every price sequence.

When the bias is unclear, stand aside or trade another market.

When the pace of price flow is too fast or too slow for your liking, stand aside or trade another market.

When the price action is choppy rather than flowing smoothly, stand aside or trade another market.

The game is hard enough. Don't make it any more difficult than it needs to be.

Remain focused. Remain alert. But remain patient.

Watch and wait. If it's not right, stand aside.

And when it is right, when it's screaming out to be traded, attack and destroy that opportunity.

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

YTC Price Action Trader references:

 

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

Patience - you don't have to trade every price sequence

For the lower timeframe view, let's use the YTC Scalper templates for a change. I don't do that often enough. The reasoning behind timing of the entries should be obvious to anyone who uses this variation of the YTC lower timeframes.

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A Thought Experiment That Might Just Get You Profitable

 

Too many people are just spinning wheels and getting nowhere.

Here's what I think.

Many of you have sufficient knowledge and skill to achieve success.

But you're focus is on trading rather than on making money.

And the end result of this is too many low probability trades in really bad environments.

Let's fix this now.

What if you had a gun to your head and you HAD to profit over your next 20 trades?

It doesn't matter how long it takes you to get to twenty. And it doesn't matter how small the profit.

The only condition is that you must stick to your risk and money management limits.

You've got 20 trades to show a profit.

How will this change the way you view the markets each day?

What would you do differently?

Just maybe you'll be happy to stand aside and watch. Stalking the market. Waiting till the bias is so clear that it's screaming out to be traded.

Just maybe… you'll prove to yourself that you can profit over 20 trades.

And if you can?

Then just do it again.

And again.

And again.

Maybe you already are a trader, but you just haven't realised it yet because you're too busy trying to trade.

What if you had a gun to your head and you HAD to profit over your next 20 trades?

What would you do differently?

Why aren't you doing this NOW?

20 trades!

Good luck!

I believe you CAN do it.

Lance Beggs

 


 

Not All Sessions Provide Equal Opportunity

 

On Thursday morning I woke to find two emails somewhat related to the same topic – the challenging trading conditions we've experienced so far this week.

So my first thoughts were to expand upon a topic I shared via social media a bit over a week ago. Because I know that only a small fraction of you receive my social media posts.

And this one is important!

Here's the post which shows the daily chart for NQ as at the 1st of June. The same concept applies for ANY market.

Not all trading sessions provide equal opportunity

Let's first talk about what is showing in the bottom half of the image. And then we'll get to "what it means".

The daily chart overlay

It's simple to set up:

Setting up the Range Indicator

Setting up the Channel Indicator

Nice and easy.

And it gives an immediate comparison of the current days range versus the average over the last month.

So let's see exactly what prompted the email concern over challenging trading conditions.

The emails related to ES and CL, but I'll start by updating the earlier social media post.

This is NQ as at the time of writing, early on the 9th of June 2016:

NQ - low daily ranges so far this week

ES - low daily ranges so far this week

CL - low daily ranges so far this week

Of course, low daily ranges DO NOT necessarily mean a tough session. There are other factors involved as well.

But for many of us, who operate a strategy that requires price movement to profit, there's a high likelihood that narrow range days are those that get on our nerves.

Narrow range = limited opportunity = frustration!

Here's the thing though…

It's completely normal. Narrow ranges are a part of the game. And we need to learn to work with them.

We need to learn to profit over the longer time scale… comprising periods of both wider range markets and lower range markets.

The good news though, if you're stuck in a period of quiet markets and narrow ranges, is that it won't last. At some point the markets WILL move. 

So what do we do with this data?

1. Use it manage expectations.

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Do No Harm

 

There is a principle within the field of medical ethics which is often expressed through the phrase, "First, Do No Harm".

To simplify the concept, it means that we should ensure that our decisions and actions do not contain potential for harm which far outweighs any potential benefit.

I like this principle. It's useful not just in medicine, but in life in general. And it certainly applies to the field of trading.

You might want to consider applying it as a principle underlying your approach to the markets.

All decisions and actions within your life have potential to either add to your edge or take from your edge.

If you avoid those which can damage your edge you'll go a long way to improving your chances for success.

What do I mean?

Think about those few extra drinks you had last night which have you feeling a little under the weather?

Do you really need to be trading today?

You'll rationalise it by saying "It's only this once. I'll manage ok.".

But it's not just this one time.

By giving yourself permission to trade this one time, you'll make it easier to repeat the behaviour in future.

So I want you to consider this… extend the behaviour into the future. A hundred times. Or a thousand times. Take it to ridiculous levels. It will help you see the damage this can cause.

"If I made this decision a thousand times across my whole trading career, is it likely to add to or reduce my edge?"

You're not trading with the effects of a hangover just once. You're giving yourself permission to do it again. Break it now.

"If I traded with the effects of a hangover a thousand times across my whole trading career, is it likely to add to or reduce my edge?"

Do no harm!

Take the day off. Return refreshed the next day.

Do you know how sometimes you feel like skipping your post-session reviews? You'll just do it this one time, right? Wrong.

"If I skipped my post-session reviews a thousand times across my whole trading career, is it likely to add to or reduce my edge?"

Do you know how sometimes you just know that the market will turn, and so all you need to do is widen the stop a little further? Just this one time, right? Wrong.

"If I widen my stop a thousand times across my whole trading career, is it likely to add to or reduce my edge?"

Do you know how sometimes you're massively pissed off at your job/spouse/partner/life/or-whatever and you know you should put it aside but just can't? So you'll just trade anyway. You're professional enough to not let it influence decision making. Right? Wrong.

"If I trade while under significant life-stress a thousand times across my whole trading career, is it likely to add to or reduce my edge?"

All decisions and actions within your life have potential to either add to your edge or take from your edge.

If you avoid those which can damage your edge you'll go a long way to improving your chances for success.

Do no harm!

Ask yourself…

"If I made this decision a thousand times across my whole trading career, is it likely to add to or reduce my edge?"

You might want to add this to your wall… just above your monitor.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Stop Fighting an Obvious Market Bias

 

Charts this week come courtesy of a trader who contacted me seeking some help.

This is something he finds himself doing time and time again.

And in my experience he's certainly not alone.

This is such a great example. I'm really pleased I can share it.

The original images were too large to fit here, so I've included two smaller segments of the larger chart. The market and timeframe have been removed. Examine the charts as if they're your own market and your own timeframe.

In case it's not obvious, all trades here are SHORT.

Stop it. Seriously... just STOP IT!!!!

The key point…

STOP FIGHTING AN OBVIOUS MARKET BIAS!

If you consistently trade like this you are NOT on the right path.

This is not the way to win.

And it doesn't always need to be such an extreme trend. 

The pain continues… a little bit later in the same session…

All SHORT except for the second last trade.

Stop it. Seriously... just STOP IT!!!!

STOP FIGHTING AN OBVIOUS MARKET BIAS!

If you have this problem of continually fading an obvious market bias, here's a starting point for correcting the problem:

First, gather some chart evidence which highlights the problem.

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Sometimes All You Need is a Slight Shift in Perspective

 

Our progress as we develop as a trader rarely occurs in a uniform, straight-line manner.

From time to time our development stalls, awaiting some trigger that shifts our perspective and allows us to see the game in a whole new way.

It's my hope that this article can provide at least one of you with your next paradigm shift!  🙂

So here's the thing:

Most of my trade ideas fail to achieve the expected outcome!

I made four attempts to trade this S/R level:

Context

Attempt 1

Attempt 1

Attempt 2

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