Tag Archives: Context

Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure

 

I absolutely LOVE IT when people send me charts and emails full of excitement at new discoveries or new ways of "seeing" the price movement.

I received one last week that I just had to share.

It's such a great example of seeking entry on the wholesale side of the market structure. I love it.

An email came from G.N. with the following chart. Of interest was the upthrust pattern allowing entry short, in line with the ideas discussed in prior articles – Professionals Traded Here and Confirmation is Risk.

(Note: The image here is compressed to fit the page. If you click on the image it will open an original-size image in your browser. Or refer to GBP/USD on the 2nd November, 1 min chart, if you wish to look at your own charting platform.)

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

Actually, let's zoom in a little to identify the upthrust area.

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

So here is what I ABSOLUTELY LOVED about receiving this image and email from GN:

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

This chart provides an awesome example of entry on the wholesale side of the market structure. Here's what I love about this particular trade idea:

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

Just beautiful!

It's been one of my favourite concepts for years.

The idea of watching breakouts against market bias for failure. And using that to trigger entry back in the direction of the original market bias.

Keep an eye out for it in your markets and your timeframes.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap

 

Last week we profited from recognising and exploiting a Higher Timeframe (HTF) trap. Check it out here if you missed it – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/higher-timeframe-trap-everyone-long-above-this-level-is-wrong/

This week, let's look at the other side of traps.

The fact that sometimes… the trapper becomes trapped.

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

Repeating for effect:

  • You don't always get it right.
  • Sometimes you're "the other trader" that's caught in the trap.
  • The key to surviving and minimising damage is in quickly recognising when price movement is NOT behaving as it should if the premise is correct.
  • Recognise and adapt.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Higher Timeframe Trap – Everyone Long Above This Level is WRONG!

 

Most of the traps I trade come from the Trading Timeframe or Lower Timeframe charts.

I don't watch the higher timeframe for traps.

However, I do see them from time to time. And they can provide some nice trading opportunity.

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

Ok, "wrong" is probably a poor choice of word. The reality is that we don't know their strategy and their timeframe.

But let's just say that they're in a drawdown.

And if they're operating on similar timeframes to us, their position is NOT looking good.

They'll likely be under a significant amount of stress. And probably hoping, wishing and praying for some way to get out of the position closer to breakeven.

Let's drop down to the Trading Timeframe chart to see where we currently stand.

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

From a Trading Timeframe perspective, this was simply a BPB of a sideways range boundary.

But from a wider context perspective, it was also triggering a trap on the higher timeframe chart. Those betting on a gap-open continuation higher suddenly found their trade premise threatened.

And this makes our range breakout SHORT just a whole lot sweeter.

It pays to always be asking, "Is anyone trapped?"

And while our focus should primarily be on the Trading Timeframe chart, we should ensure our scan also extends to the Higher Timeframe chart. At least once per new higher timeframe candle.

Maintain a feel for context. Where is the current price action occurring within the higher timeframe structure? Sometimes this wider situational awareness will keep you out of a bad trade. Other times, as here, it can add additional fuel to our trade idea.

Always be asking, "Is anyone trapped?"

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

 

The market has opened and rallied. Not with great strength. In fact it's quite slow. But it rallies with a clear bullish bias.

It's clear of all S/R levels, above the prior day's high resistance (now support) and well short of the next higher timeframe resistance level.

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade opportunity in such a case is ideally sought in the bullish direction.

YTC Price Action Trader readers – the first and second principles apply here and we're looking ideally for PB/CPB opportunity, with the trend.

However, there are times when I'll also look to take counter-trend opportunity, within this market environment.

Not always. But sometimes it's just screaming out to be traded. This is one of those times.

And not with any intention of catching a reversal. Just a scalp from the edges back to the mean.

Here's what I was seeing. We'll look at the TTF first, but we'll follow that up with the HTF chart, because it stands out better there and is much easier to see.

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Keep watch on the charts for anything unusual. Anything that is different.

It may just provide trade opportunity.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Trading the Retest of a Point of Structural Change

 

One of our aims in trading the financial markets is to make sure that we're trading in the right places on the price chart.

Places which make sense when viewed from the perspective of the psychology of the market participants.

Places which make sense when viewed from the perspective of the structure of the market.

Today we look at one of these places – the retest of a point of structural change.

We've addressed this concept briefly in the past. If you haven't seen this prior article you may wish to review it first.

http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/retesting-the-point-of-structural-change/

The prior article summarised the concept as follows: 

Retesting the point of structural change

All examples in that article dealt with structural patterns on the trading timeframe.

But the same concept can be applied across a much larger time scale, with trade opportunity found as markets retest a point of higher timeframe structural change.

That was the idea behind the following trade.

We'll start by examining a much higher timeframe in order to see the structure develop over the prior four days.

Retesting the point of structural change

Volatility contraction is never fun to trade. Monday was slow and boring. Tuesday was worse.

But in the back of my mind at these times is an expectation that this volatility contraction must end at some stage.

And the expansion of volatility on a break from these patterns can provide great
trading conditions.

So let's move forward to Wednesday to see how the breakout eventually occurs. And to see whether or not it then offers us a nice BPB setup entry long.

Retesting the point of structural change

Damn! We missed it.

Or maybe not?

Let's move ahead 30 minutes into Wednesday's session.

Retesting the point of structural change

From a structural perspective, this is a beautiful place to be seeking opportunity long. Previous resistance often provides support once broken and retested.

From the metagame perspective, it's also a beautiful place to be seeking opportunity long.

Anyone with a bullish bias who missed the overnight breakout has now been gifted an ideal "second chance" entry opportunity.

Those already holding a long position have been provided an ideal scenario to add to their position.

And for those who managed to get short from the open on Wednesday, the market is at the ideal area for profit taking (ie. buy orders).

There is good reason to be buying here.

Let's look to the trading timeframe to see how it played out.

(more…)

Stop Fighting an Obvious Market Bias

 

Charts this week come courtesy of a trader who contacted me seeking some help.

This is something he finds himself doing time and time again.

And in my experience he's certainly not alone.

This is such a great example. I'm really pleased I can share it.

The original images were too large to fit here, so I've included two smaller segments of the larger chart. The market and timeframe have been removed. Examine the charts as if they're your own market and your own timeframe.

In case it's not obvious, all trades here are SHORT.

Stop it. Seriously... just STOP IT!!!!

The key point…

STOP FIGHTING AN OBVIOUS MARKET BIAS!

If you consistently trade like this you are NOT on the right path.

This is not the way to win.

And it doesn't always need to be such an extreme trend. 

The pain continues… a little bit later in the same session…

All SHORT except for the second last trade.

Stop it. Seriously... just STOP IT!!!!

STOP FIGHTING AN OBVIOUS MARKET BIAS!

If you have this problem of continually fading an obvious market bias, here's a starting point for correcting the problem:

First, gather some chart evidence which highlights the problem.

(more…)

I’d Take These Trades EVERY TIME. Here’s Why…

 

Win, lose or draw!

I'd be happy to take these trades EVERY TIME.

Let's start with some much higher timeframes to give you some context.

I'd take these trades EVERY time.

I'd take these trades EVERY time.

I'd take these trades EVERY time.

So there is good potential for strong directional movement below prior lows.

Any break to new lows… I'll be all over any BPB weakness.

And even better… if the market sets up right I'll try to enter short pre-break (above the low of day) to profit as price breaks lower. 

Let's look to the Trading Timeframe chart to see what the market offered.

(more…)

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

 

Fading the edges of the market structure requires that you see the markets in a different way to the usual retail trader.

Strength in price movement towards a range boundary or an S/R level is not necessarily going to continue with strength following a breakout.

In the right context, this apparent strength can produce a nice trap at the edge of the market structure, providing breakout failure opportunity for anyone willing to fade the move back into the prior range.

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

Fading the Edges of the Market Structure

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

False Breakout Trap Review

 

I received an email last week from a student of the YTC Price Action Trader, which I ABSOLUTELY LOVE.

Actually, I receive a lot of email which I absolutely love. But sometimes they just stand out immediately as something really special.

It was a simple email, containing just one image (shown below).

And the only text was in the subject line: Thank You

Yeah, that made my day! 🙂

False Breakout Trap

Let's look at the trade, using this 1 minute timeframe as the Trading Timeframe (noting that this is more a YTC Scalper timeframe than YTC Price Action Trader). If you use a higher timeframe, that's fine. Don't discount the lesson. Look to the ideas and concepts and apply them to your own trading timeframe.

What I love is the simple fact that to most newbies, or most traders of simple text-book style technical analysis, there is no obvious reason to short.

The newbies have a limited view of price movement and opportunity

Let's look at how I see this price movement.

What immediately excited me was WHEN this trade occurred. So we'll start with that.

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