Tag Archives: Entry

Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour – 3

 

This is what I like to see in a breakout…

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

This is a prime target for a breakout failure.

But I don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, I watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

Don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour – 2

 

This is what I like to see in a breakout…

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

This is a prime target for a breakout failure.

But I don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, I watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

Don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

Happy trading, 

Lance Beggs

 


 

Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour – 1

 

This is what I like to see in a breakout…

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

This is a prime target for a breakout failure.

But I don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, I watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

Don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Don’t Overcomplicate Things – 1

 

The vast majority of my trades lately, maybe 95%, fit within one of two broad categories.

<image: Don't Overcomplicate Things>

<image: Don't Overcomplicate Things>

(For those with the YTC Price Action Trader, the first category will include all variations of PB, CPB and BPB trades. The second category will include all variations of TST, BOF and any "reversion to the mean" scalp against an existing trend. For the second category, note that I will rarely be entering against strength. Look within the TTF/LTF to see weakness late in the over-extension, or on a subsequent retest. But the whole sequence should be over-extended.)

Let's look at an example and see how it fits within one of these categories.

Today… category 1 (the bearish version).

<image: Don't Overcomplicate Things>

<image: Don't Overcomplicate Things>

<image: Don't Overcomplicate Things>

<image: Don't Overcomplicate Things>

 

Let me highlight two key points.

<image: Don't Overcomplicate Things>

<image: Don't Overcomplicate Things>

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

PS. On Tuesday I posted a repeat of an old 2015 Facebook post. You can see it here. Note the similarity in concept. Don't overcomplicate things. Simpler is better.

 


 

TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry

 

Let's say we have a market with a clear bearish bias.

Price then pulls back higher and reaches an area in which I'd be happy to enter a SHORT position.

Two of the key things I'm looking for are:

  1. Signs that the bulls have exhausted everything they've got.
  2. Signs that the late bulls, entering late in the pullback rally, will be under maximum stress and likely to give up on their trade.

 

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

One of the ways I love to see this play out is through a Trading Timeframe (TTF) Narrow Range Bar.

Let's see one in play…

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

Let's zoom in a little to see how the pullback develops…

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

Please note that I am NOT advocating buying or selling the break of every TTF Narrow Range bar.

The trade must be in a proper setup location, where follow through in your trade direction makes sense with regards to the structure of the market.

The trade must offer good reward:risk parameters. The Narrow Range bar entry will ensure low risk. The market structure though, MUST provide multiple-R opportunity.

While trading and waiting for lower timeframe price confirmation… make sure to also keep an eye on the TTF. It may just be proving an inability to move further into your setup area, offering you a nice low risk entry into your trade.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 

PS. For more examples of this TTF Narrow Range Bar entry concept:

 


 

Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure

 

I absolutely LOVE IT when people send me charts and emails full of excitement at new discoveries or new ways of "seeing" the price movement.

I received one last week that I just had to share.

It's such a great example of seeking entry on the wholesale side of the market structure. I love it.

An email came from G.N. with the following chart. Of interest was the upthrust pattern allowing entry short, in line with the ideas discussed in prior articles – Professionals Traded Here and Confirmation is Risk.

(Note: The image here is compressed to fit the page. If you click on the image it will open an original-size image in your browser. Or refer to GBP/USD on the 2nd November, 1 min chart, if you wish to look at your own charting platform.)

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

Actually, let's zoom in a little to identify the upthrust area.

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

So here is what I ABSOLUTELY LOVED about receiving this image and email from GN:

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

This chart provides an awesome example of entry on the wholesale side of the market structure. Here's what I love about this particular trade idea:

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

Just beautiful!

It's been one of my favourite concepts for years.

The idea of watching breakouts against market bias for failure. And using that to trigger entry back in the direction of the original market bias.

Keep an eye out for it in your markets and your timeframes.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Stop – Pause to Reassess – Reverse

 

I get asked from time to time whether I ever "stop and reverse" a trade.

That is, enter SHORT when stopped out of a LONG position. Or enter LONG when stopped out of a SHORT position.

The reality is that I don't do that often.

The failure of one trade is usually NOT an indication of potential in the opposite direction.

The only time there may be potential is when the CONTEXT suggests the new trade is a valid trade in its own right. So the trade validity has little (or nothing) to do with the failed trade preceding it.

For example, if I'm fading a strongly directional market and recognise that I'm wrong, then I might use the stop to reverse to a with-trend trade. In this case, the with-trend trade is a completely valid trade in its own right. It's a with-trend trade I'd be happy to take, even had I not taken the earlier counter-trend trade.

But as I said, I don't tend to do this often. It's not always easy to shift bias so quickly.

There is however a closely related trade, which is a little more common.

It's more of a "Stop – Pause to Reassess – Reverse".

A common place for these is a key level of some kind, such as an S/R level or range boundary, where we might be assessing two potential opposite biases through either a breakout failure or breakout pullback.

Let's look at one example:

<image: Stop - Pause to Reassess - Reverse>

<image: Stop - Pause to Reassess - Reverse>

<image: Stop - Pause to Reassess - Reverse>

<image: Stop - Pause to Reassess - Reverse>

<image: Stop - Pause to Reassess - Reverse>

<image: Stop - Pause to Reassess - Reverse>

<image: Stop - Pause to Reassess - Reverse>

 

Key points:

1. Failure of one trade does not imply potential in the opposite direction, unless the context suggests the new trade is a valid trade in its own right.

2. A stop and reverse does not need to happen at the same time. Often a better option is "Stop – Pause to Reassess – Reverse". Give yourself an opportunity to reassess the situation with a clear mind, as a result of having no exposure to the market.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

The Other Trader (5)

 

Let's continue with a series we started last year – the metagame – trading AGAINST other traders who find themselves on the wrong side of the market.

Because…

If I can't feel someone on the other side of the market getting it really wrong, there is no trade.

You can see the prior articles here if you missed them – OneTwoThreeFour.

Let's set up the scenario…

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

(Source: YTC Price Action Trader Vol 2 Ch 3 P99-102)

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

(Source: YTC Price Action Trader Vol 2 Ch 3 P145-153)

From a metagame perspective, this is the scenario we're looking at. We aim to place ourselves in the mindset of any trader who bought late in the move, at or soon after the breakout. Feel their stress build as price stalls. And stalls. And stalls. Feel their pain as their "sure thing" collapses back below the stall region. And find a way to profit from their pain.

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5> 

Let's zoom in a bit. And take on the mindset of the novice retail trader who entered late in the move (let's say right on the break).

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

Trading the metagame…

If I can't feel someone on the other side of the market getting it really wrong, there is no trade.

Fast, sudden price moves don't always continue.

Quite often, someone is getting trapped.

And that… is opportunity.

Go get 'em,

Lance Beggs