Tag Archives: Metagame

Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour – 3

 

This is what I like to see in a breakout…

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

This is a prime target for a breakout failure.

But I don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, I watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

Don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour – 2

 

This is what I like to see in a breakout…

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

This is a prime target for a breakout failure.

But I don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, I watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

Don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

Happy trading, 

Lance Beggs

 


 

Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour – 1

 

This is what I like to see in a breakout…

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

This is a prime target for a breakout failure.

But I don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, I watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour> 

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

<image: Watch Post-Breakout Behaviour>

Don't ever just jump in and fade the break.

There is never any certainty in this game. It may well rally.

Instead, watch post-breakout behaviour and CONFIRM that there are no signs of strength.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry

 

Let's say we have a market with a clear bearish bias.

Price then pulls back higher and reaches an area in which I'd be happy to enter a SHORT position.

Two of the key things I'm looking for are:

  1. Signs that the bulls have exhausted everything they've got.
  2. Signs that the late bulls, entering late in the pullback rally, will be under maximum stress and likely to give up on their trade.

 

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

One of the ways I love to see this play out is through a Trading Timeframe (TTF) Narrow Range Bar.

Let's see one in play…

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

Let's zoom in a little to see how the pullback develops…

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

Please note that I am NOT advocating buying or selling the break of every TTF Narrow Range bar.

The trade must be in a proper setup location, where follow through in your trade direction makes sense with regards to the structure of the market.

The trade must offer good reward:risk parameters. The Narrow Range bar entry will ensure low risk. The market structure though, MUST provide multiple-R opportunity.

While trading and waiting for lower timeframe price confirmation… make sure to also keep an eye on the TTF. It may just be proving an inability to move further into your setup area, offering you a nice low risk entry into your trade.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 

PS. For more examples of this TTF Narrow Range Bar entry concept:

 


 

Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure

 

I absolutely LOVE IT when people send me charts and emails full of excitement at new discoveries or new ways of "seeing" the price movement.

I received one last week that I just had to share.

It's such a great example of seeking entry on the wholesale side of the market structure. I love it.

An email came from G.N. with the following chart. Of interest was the upthrust pattern allowing entry short, in line with the ideas discussed in prior articles – Professionals Traded Here and Confirmation is Risk.

(Note: The image here is compressed to fit the page. If you click on the image it will open an original-size image in your browser. Or refer to GBP/USD on the 2nd November, 1 min chart, if you wish to look at your own charting platform.)

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

Actually, let's zoom in a little to identify the upthrust area.

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

So here is what I ABSOLUTELY LOVED about receiving this image and email from GN:

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

This chart provides an awesome example of entry on the wholesale side of the market structure. Here's what I love about this particular trade idea:

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

<image: Seeking Entry on the Wholesale Side of the Market Structure>

Just beautiful!

It's been one of my favourite concepts for years.

The idea of watching breakouts against market bias for failure. And using that to trigger entry back in the direction of the original market bias.

Keep an eye out for it in your markets and your timeframes.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap

 

Last week we profited from recognising and exploiting a Higher Timeframe (HTF) trap. Check it out here if you missed it – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/higher-timeframe-trap-everyone-long-above-this-level-is-wrong/

This week, let's look at the other side of traps.

The fact that sometimes… the trapper becomes trapped.

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

<image: Caught on the Wrong Side of the HTF Trap>

Repeating for effect:

  • You don't always get it right.
  • Sometimes you're "the other trader" that's caught in the trap.
  • The key to surviving and minimising damage is in quickly recognising when price movement is NOT behaving as it should if the premise is correct.
  • Recognise and adapt.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Higher Timeframe Trap – Everyone Long Above This Level is WRONG!

 

Most of the traps I trade come from the Trading Timeframe or Lower Timeframe charts.

I don't watch the higher timeframe for traps.

However, I do see them from time to time. And they can provide some nice trading opportunity.

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

Ok, "wrong" is probably a poor choice of word. The reality is that we don't know their strategy and their timeframe.

But let's just say that they're in a drawdown.

And if they're operating on similar timeframes to us, their position is NOT looking good.

They'll likely be under a significant amount of stress. And probably hoping, wishing and praying for some way to get out of the position closer to breakeven.

Let's drop down to the Trading Timeframe chart to see where we currently stand.

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

<image: Higher Timeframe Trap>

From a Trading Timeframe perspective, this was simply a BPB of a sideways range boundary.

But from a wider context perspective, it was also triggering a trap on the higher timeframe chart. Those betting on a gap-open continuation higher suddenly found their trade premise threatened.

And this makes our range breakout SHORT just a whole lot sweeter.

It pays to always be asking, "Is anyone trapped?"

And while our focus should primarily be on the Trading Timeframe chart, we should ensure our scan also extends to the Higher Timeframe chart. At least once per new higher timeframe candle.

Maintain a feel for context. Where is the current price action occurring within the higher timeframe structure? Sometimes this wider situational awareness will keep you out of a bad trade. Other times, as here, it can add additional fuel to our trade idea.

Always be asking, "Is anyone trapped?"

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

The Other Trader (5)

 

Let's continue with a series we started last year – the metagame – trading AGAINST other traders who find themselves on the wrong side of the market.

Because…

If I can't feel someone on the other side of the market getting it really wrong, there is no trade.

You can see the prior articles here if you missed them – OneTwoThreeFour.

Let's set up the scenario…

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

(Source: YTC Price Action Trader Vol 2 Ch 3 P99-102)

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

(Source: YTC Price Action Trader Vol 2 Ch 3 P145-153)

From a metagame perspective, this is the scenario we're looking at. We aim to place ourselves in the mindset of any trader who bought late in the move, at or soon after the breakout. Feel their stress build as price stalls. And stalls. And stalls. Feel their pain as their "sure thing" collapses back below the stall region. And find a way to profit from their pain.

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5> 

Let's zoom in a bit. And take on the mindset of the novice retail trader who entered late in the move (let's say right on the break).

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

<image - metagame trading - the other trader 5>

Trading the metagame…

If I can't feel someone on the other side of the market getting it really wrong, there is no trade.

Fast, sudden price moves don't always continue.

Quite often, someone is getting trapped.

And that… is opportunity.

Go get 'em,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Let It Fail First – Then Get In

 

Although we trade very differently, I am quite a fan of Al Brooks first book, "Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar".

One of his quotes which has stuck with me over the years is the following:

  • Countertrend setups in strong trends almost always fail and become great With Trend setups.

 

This quote came to mind earlier in the week, as I took a counter-trend entry against a strong trend, despite my predominant thought prior to entry being "This is too obvious. It has to be a trap!".

<Let it fail first - then get in>

The drop from point 2 was just over 30pts (120 ticks) in 15 minutes. Ok, it's maybe not the strongest trend. But there was very little opportunity in the way of pullback entries SHORT. And bears still felt in control.

<Let it fail first - then get in>

<Let it fail first - then get in>

<Let it fail first - then get in> 

And that's when the Al Brooks quote came to mind.

  • Countertrend setups in strong trends almost always fail and become great With Trend setups.

 

<Let it fail first - then get in>

The outcome:

<Let it fail first - then get in>

<Let it fail first - then get in>

<Let it fail first - then get in> 

Happy trading, 

Lance Beggs

 


 

Momentum Doesn’t Always Continue

 

I love these patterns so much. Let's do it one more time.

Momentum doesn't always continue

I know… we've done this a couple of times already – see here – and here.

And of course, those with the YTC Price Action Trader should look to Volume 2, Chapter 3, Page 143, for the same idea expressed on the Trading Timeframe.

But I want to do it one more time, just to really emphasise the point.

In the right context these Test/Breakout Failures of momentum extremes can provide GREAT opportunity.

Regardless of your chosen market and timeframe, if this idea appeals to you then I highly recommend you look through your charts (both trading and higher timeframes) and study some historical examples. You may then want to keep an eye out for them in future.

So to look at yet another market, let's see one that occurred in the emini Dow (YM) futures earlier this week.

I watch for this on both higher timeframes AND on the trading timeframe. This example actually occurs on both. Let's start with a higher timeframe, using the 15 minute as it provides a good "fit" on the image.

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

I mentioned earlier that this momentum drive also offered a Trading Timeframe example. That would be for those on the 1 minute YTC Scalper timeframes. You'll note if you look at the 15 minute charts above you'll see the momentum low actually included two candles with bottoming tails. On the lower timeframe chart this is yet another example of this same pattern. Let's look at the 1 minute chart showing the "internal detail" comprising these bottoming tail lows.

Momentum doesn't always continue

Keep an eye out for large momentum moves. Those on the trading timeframe can offer nice movement for a swing or two. Those on the higher timeframe structure can offer a clear directional bias for a longer period of time, often a whole session.

  1. A strong momentum drive.
  2. The first pullback does not lead to immediate continuation.
  3. An eventual break of the momentum extreme, which rapidly fails.
  4. Potential opportunity!

 

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs