3 losses in a row are tough. That’s about the most consecutive losses that novice traders are psychologically prepared to accept before they feel compelled to take action and ‘correct’ the situation.
If you’re anything but a total newbie, I’m sure you’ll recognize the symptoms:
- Frustration – Why me? I’ve worked so hard. Everyone else in the forum appears to be getting good results with this strategy? Nothing ever works out for me.
- Anger – That strategy developer is a liar and a crook. My broker is running my stops. Someone should be held accountable for this.
- Doubt – What if the strategy doesn’t work? What if I can’t trade? How am I going to support my family?
- Fear – I can’t lose more money, what will everyone say about me when they know I’m a loser? How can I tell my wife/husband that I’ve lost again?
And if that’s not enough, the novice trader will likely be afflicted with the crippling inability to pull the trigger on the next trade, in fear of hitting a fourth loss in a row.
Usually, there is one of two responses:
- The strategy is tweaked to ensure that the modified version would not have triggered these losing trades, through:
- Swapping one indicator for another,
- Optimising indicator parameters, or
- Adding an additional filter.
- Totally abandoning the strategy, usually followed by returning to their favourite forum to find the next Holy Grail strategy that is designed to make their dreams come true.
Is this the right response though?
Typically, trading decisions which are influenced by emotions rarely result in the right action.
So, what should be done?
First, before we continue, you need to confirm that you do have a valid, proven trading strategy. Have you conducted appropriate testing to satisfy yourself that it provides a positive expectancy? If not, stop trading it right now and return to testing. I don’t care what reason you had for jumping straight into a live trading environment, but the fact is that it’s difficult to psychologically trade a strategy in a consistent and disciplined manner when you don’t have complete confidence in its rules. You need to conduct thorough testing.
But assuming you have a strategy that has proven itself through positive results either in a testing or live trading environment, simply refer to your testing results or past trading history, and you’ll confirm that three losses in a row is a quite normal occurrence. In fact, it’s quite normal to have a lot more than three in a row. And it does not mean that your strategy is flawed.
Let’s look at this from a purely statistical perspective.