Tag Archives: Price Action

TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry

 

Let's say we have a market with a clear bearish bias.

Price then pulls back higher and reaches an area in which I'd be happy to enter a SHORT position.

Two of the key things I'm looking for are:

  1. Signs that the bulls have exhausted everything they've got.
  2. Signs that the late bulls, entering late in the pullback rally, will be under maximum stress and likely to give up on their trade.

 

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

One of the ways I love to see this play out is through a Trading Timeframe (TTF) Narrow Range Bar.

Let's see one in play…

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

Let's zoom in a little to see how the pullback develops…

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

<image: TTF Narrow Range Bar Entry>

Please note that I am NOT advocating buying or selling the break of every TTF Narrow Range bar.

The trade must be in a proper setup location, where follow through in your trade direction makes sense with regards to the structure of the market.

The trade must offer good reward:risk parameters. The Narrow Range bar entry will ensure low risk. The market structure though, MUST provide multiple-R opportunity.

While trading and waiting for lower timeframe price confirmation… make sure to also keep an eye on the TTF. It may just be proving an inability to move further into your setup area, offering you a nice low risk entry into your trade.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 

PS. For more examples of this TTF Narrow Range Bar entry concept:

 


 

Reverse Trendline Breakout Failure

 

The market opened and settled quickly into an uptrend.

It was an environment I found difficult to trade for some reason. Decision making was poor. And I just couldn't get in sync with the price movement.

This was a fact that became clearly obvious after two suboptimal trades (small profit so it's all good).

So here's the plan on recognising the fact that I'm out of sync with the market:

  • Stand aside until price breaks from the current structure.

 

Here's what I mean:

The current structure was an uptrend. But not a nice one. Small swings, getting smaller.

I don't use trendlines, but they will help show what I was seeing within the structure, as the trendlines above and below price both converge on each other.

(Reverse Trendline Breakout Failure)

This is what I wait for:

(Reverse Trendline Breakout Failure)

(Reverse Trendline Breakout Failure)

This time we got a break of the reverse trendline.

(Reverse Trendline Breakout Failure)

From a strength/weakness perspective, an acceleration of price like this gives an appearance of strength, but it's not usually the case. Such a steepening of price is unsustainable and will exhaust itself. Any strength is actually short-lived and will often (but not always) provide opportunity back to the last area of congestion prior to breakout.

(Reverse Trendline Breakout Failure)

Here is the outcome:

(Reverse Trendline Breakout Failure)

Lessons:

1. Two suboptimal trades are an indication that you're potentially out of sync. Pause. Step back from the charts. And reassess.

2. When you recognise yourself being out of sync with the market, consider standing aside until price breaks from the current structure.

3. A reverse trendline breakout is usually played initially for reversion to the mean, with the remainder held for potential reversal (until proven otherwise).

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Clues to a Quiet Trading Session

 

Some days the market offers complete rubbish.

Monday was one of those days.

Clues to a quiet trading session 

Clues to a quiet trading session

Clues to a quiet trading session

Clues to a quiet trading session

Clues to a quiet trading session

Clues to a quiet trading session

Clues to a quiet trading session

Clues to a quiet trading session

Clues to a quiet trading session

So far we mentioned the following price action clues which helped form my decision to stand aside and watch and wait for better conditions.

  • Overlapping price bars with little directional conviction
  • Plus narrow range price swings
  • Both combining to form a narrow range channel which just drifts slowly in one direction

 

In addition, a big part of the decision is the following:

  • "Feel" – The price movement itself intra-candle just "feels" slow and sluggish. And while it's present through all price movement, it's particularly felt when sitting in a position and it's just NOT moving the way you like.

 

However, there is another quite important input into my decision, which I haven't mentioned yet. (This was actually the whole point of the article when I conducted my planning… yes, I've digressed again!!!)

It's a factor which gradually became clear between 5 and 30 minutes after the session open.

So let's get to the whole point of my article and check this out.

We'll begin by looking at the DAILY chart.

Clues to a quiet trading session

Of note is the fact that the volume of the day (with hindsight) turned out to be the lowest volume in a LONG TIME (excluding holiday sessions). I don't know how long. I'm not a stats person. If you are, feel free let me know how long!  🙂

But it was a long time since we've seen the daily volume so low.

And low volume is often (not always) an indication of a dull, lifeless session. Just the kind of session I prefer to avoid.

Of course, the exchange does not publish the end-of-day volume before the session starts.

But it's not all bad.

Here's a tip I learnt many years ago:

  • The opening 30 minute volume gives a clue as to the kind of day we'll get. A very low opening 30 minute volume suggests low participation and (in the absence of any reason for this to change) a higher likelihood of a lower volume day.

 

In other words, if the 30 minute volume is really low, expect dull, lifeless conditions ahead.

So here's the opening 30 minute volume. Again, very low compared with recent historical averages.

Clues to a quiet trading session

And rather than wait till 30 minutes, we can take a quick peek at 5 and 15 minutes into the session.

Clues to a quiet trading session

Clues to a quiet trading session

There is no need to build and display these chart templates which show only the first 5, 15 and 30 minutes of data. Just glance at the volume after 5, 15 and 30 minutes and you'll get a feel for whether it's low, about average or high.

A low opening five minute volume is a warning sign. Participation is low. Interesting! Take note.

If it continues after 15 minutes, this is a bigger warning sign. Take care in these markets.

And if the volume remains low at the 30 minute mark, when compared with historical averages, expect a potentially dull and lifeless session. At least until something shocks the market out of it's slumber and shifts the sentiment of the market participants.

TRADE WITH CAUTION.

A+ SETUPS ONLY.

Or not at all.

Sometimes it feels good to take hold of your small profits and call it a day. There is a life to be lived out there, away from the charts.

On this particular Monday, the volume was low after 5 minutes. And again at the 15 minute mark. Price action had felt slow and sluggish. In particular when in a trade. Price structure had the appearance of potential grind – one of my least favourite trading environments. And then at the 30 minute mark, volume was clearly the lowest for at least the last few months.

There was no need to trade any further.

Tomorrow will be a whole new day and a chance for much more favourable trading conditions.

Happy trading, 

Lance Beggs

 


 

Learning from the Must-Trade Price Sequences

 

Almost all trading sessions will contain one to two price sequences which are absolutely the best.

These can be the difference between an average session where you just grind out a small positive result and a great session where you hit it out of the ballpark.

The price sequences which make your day.

How you define a "must-trade" price sequence will vary from trader to trader. But for most of us they will be the largest and most directional price swings, with smooth price flow at a nice pace. Everything just right!

There can be value in reviewing these post-session.

  • Which were the Must-Trade Price Sequences?
  • Did I capture them?
  • If so, how well did I perform? How did I recognise the opportunity? How could I have done better?
  • If not, was it reasonable to expect that I should have caught them? Why did I fail to capture them? How could I have done better?

 

Let's look at a couple of examples.

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

 

Another example:

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Learning from the MUST-TRADE price sequences

Consider adding this to your post-session review, if you think it will offer value:

  • Which were the Must-Trade Price Sequences?
  • Did I capture them?
  • If so, how well did I perform? How did I recognise the opportunity? How could I have done better?
  • If not, was it reasonable to expect that I should have caught them? Why did I fail to capture them? How could I have done better?

 

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

A Simple Alternative Means of Assessing Short-Term Bias & Market Strength/Weakness – Part 2

 

I've long been a fan of Opening Range (OR) theory and the way that it allows us to quickly and easily identify a "bigger picture" session bias.

So last week we played around with that concept and explored it's application in new areas of the chart.

We took the concept of OR theory and applied it not just to the opening bar of the session, but to multiple bars throughout the session as well.

In my own trading, using the 1-minute Trading Timeframe, I apply this to the opening candle for every 30 minute block of data.

This allows me to not only have the "bigger picture" session-wide bias, but to also get a feel for the bias on a shorter timescale as well.

Think of it as being like multiple-timeframe analysis. The standard OR provides a bigger picture session-wide bias. The 30 minute OR’s provide a picture of the shorter-term bias “inside” that bigger picture bias.

You can find last week's article here if you missed it – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/a-simple-alternative-means-of-assessing-short-term-bias/

At the most basic level, analysis of a single 30M OR block can provide us with two primary pieces of information:

  1. A sense for the short-term directional bias. Price movement above the OR is bullish. Price movement below the OR is bearish. And price movement stuck at the OR is neutral.
  2. A feel for the underlying strength or weakness within this directional bias. Fast-flowing price movement with little overlap shows a strong supply/demand imbalance. Whereas overlapping, choppy action suggests a much more balanced market.

 

Let's look at some examples of this information as applied to individual 30M blocks:

Analysis of Individual 30M OR Blocks

Analysis of Individual 30M OR Blocks

Analysis of Individual 30M OR Blocks

Analysis of Individual 30M OR Blocks

The real strength of this method though, is not in analysis of an individual 30M OR block.

Rather it comes through assessing the information from the current OR block within the context of either the overall session bias or the preceding couple of OR blocks.

Resolving Bias Conflict.

Resolving Bias Conflict.

Resolving Bias Conflict.

Resolving Bias Conflict.

Resolving Bias Conflict. 

If you like this, I highly encourage you to play around with the charts and see what other information you can gather, in relating one single OR block to those preceding it.

Again though, to reinforce a point from our prior article…

This is not my primary tool for conducting analysis.

I assess short-term bias through six "rules of thumb" which allow me to project the current trend forward in time, identifying the highest probability path for the next couple of price swings. I share this method in my eBook series (Chapter 3). The same applies for the method I use to assess strength and weakness within the trend. Also Chapter 3.

Short-term OR Theory is something that has crept into my analysis process over time, which acts to nicely complement the existing methods.

Sometimes it acts simply to confirm my other analysis. And other times it provides a slightly different perspective.

Either way, I find it adds value.

If this idea appeals to you, try it alongside your current methods of analysis and see if you find the same benefits.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

A Simple Alternative Means of Assessing Short-Term Bias & Market Strength/Weakness

 

I highly recommend spending some time every now and then just playing with your charts.

Try something new.

Or see if you can apply old ideas in new ways.

Just occasionally, you may find something useful.

Today I'd like to share a simple tool that I've been using for the last few years, alongside my existing approach to assessing short-term market bias and the strength or weakness within the price action.

IMPORTANT NOTE: This is not my primary tool for conducting analysis.

I assess short-term bias through six "rules of thumb" which allow me to project the current trend forward in time, identifying the highest probability path for the next couple of price swings. I don't share this in the newsletter or blog (sorry!). If you're interested you'll need to see my ebook series (Chapter 3). The same applies for the methods I use to assess strength and weakness within the trend. Also Chapter 3.

What we discuss today is something that has crept into my analysis process over time, which acts to nicely complement the existing methods.

Sometimes it acts simply to confirm my other analysis. And other times it provides a slightly different perspective.

Either way, it adds value.

This discovery came about through "playing" with Opening Range theory and seeing where else it could be applied.

We've discussed the Opening Range previously in a few articles if you want some background reading – http://yourtradingcoach.com/tag/opening-range/.

Here is the general concept:

Standard Opening Range theory 

So now, let's apply this in a new way.

I first hinted at this idea way back in 2013 via a series of two facebook posts:

First this one…  (and I guess I've kind of given away the answer!!!)

An Alternative Use for Opening Range theory

 

And then the next day, this post:

 

An Alternative Use for Opening Range theory

I've never seen anyone else do this. I'm not sure why? I think it's an absolutely brilliant method of maintaining an intra-session bias. And it works just beautifully as an additional method to support other YTC Price Action Trader analysis.

The hourly open is a significant occurrence, visible to traders on all timeframes from 1H down to 1M. As such, opening range theory applied to the first Trading Timeframe candle at this point works well in giving a quick indication of current bias as either bullish, bearish or neutral.

The same applies for 30 minute opens, if you prefer to look at this even more short-term. My preference has shifted to using the opening 1 minute candle, each 30 minutes. I find this works well for the 1 minute trading timeframe. If your trading timeframe is higher then just increase the size of the segment as appropriate. Those trading 3 or 5 min charts will likely find one hour segments better than 30 minute segments. Higher trading timeframes may even find value with 2H or 4H groups.

Again… I'm not sure why we don't see this used more often. Give it a try! I love it!

I'm not going to reveal all I've found in using this approach. I want you to play with it. Explore the idea on some charts. Run it alongside your current methods. If it adds no value, drop it. But maybe… and I suspect this will be the case for many… it will become a quite useful tool in your trading toolkit.

A quick starting point though:

Within the context of the "bigger picture" session bias and other analysis information available from standard opening range theory, we now have a method of assessing the same information on a shorter timescale.

So as with the standard approach, price movement from the 1H or 30M Opening Range gives us insight into either bullish or bearish or neutral bias. And the ease with which price moves away gives insight into the strength and weakness.

But now, instead of just being able to reference price to the Opening Range, we also have the ability to:

(a) Reference the shorter-term 1H or 30M bias information to the longer-term session bias information, as the shorter-term acts to move with or against the longer-term bias.

(b) Reference the current 1H or 30M bias information to that obtained from the previous one or two 1H or 30M segments.

That is, we get information into the way that price is moving. Is it stable, maintaining previous direction, pace and volatility? Or is something changing?

I might leave this here for now.

Again, rather than provide examples, I'd like you to play with this idea and see what you think.

Plot an opening range box around the first "trading timeframe" candle each 30 minutes (or one hour).

If there seems to be any interest then I'll follow up with a part-two in coming weeks, looking at the short-term 30M Opening Range on a few price charts.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Momentum Doesn’t Always Continue

 

I love these patterns so much. Let's do it one more time.

Momentum doesn't always continue

I know… we've done this a couple of times already – see here – and here.

And of course, those with the YTC Price Action Trader should look to Volume 2, Chapter 3, Page 143, for the same idea expressed on the Trading Timeframe.

But I want to do it one more time, just to really emphasise the point.

In the right context these Test/Breakout Failures of momentum extremes can provide GREAT opportunity.

Regardless of your chosen market and timeframe, if this idea appeals to you then I highly recommend you look through your charts (both trading and higher timeframes) and study some historical examples. You may then want to keep an eye out for them in future.

So to look at yet another market, let's see one that occurred in the emini Dow (YM) futures earlier this week.

I watch for this on both higher timeframes AND on the trading timeframe. This example actually occurs on both. Let's start with a higher timeframe, using the 15 minute as it provides a good "fit" on the image.

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

Momentum doesn't always continue

I mentioned earlier that this momentum drive also offered a Trading Timeframe example. That would be for those on the 1 minute YTC Scalper timeframes. You'll note if you look at the 15 minute charts above you'll see the momentum low actually included two candles with bottoming tails. On the lower timeframe chart this is yet another example of this same pattern. Let's look at the 1 minute chart showing the "internal detail" comprising these bottoming tail lows.

Momentum doesn't always continue

Keep an eye out for large momentum moves. Those on the trading timeframe can offer nice movement for a swing or two. Those on the higher timeframe structure can offer a clear directional bias for a longer period of time, often a whole session.

  1. A strong momentum drive.
  2. The first pullback does not lead to immediate continuation.
  3. An eventual break of the momentum extreme, which rapidly fails.
  4. Potential opportunity!

 

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Higher Timeframe Forex – When The Market Can’t Push Lower

 

One of the key tasks I was looking forward to this last week, having recently overcome my long-term internet outage, was in catching up with Aaron Fifield's Chat With Traders podcast.

And I must say it was AWESOME to come across episode 117 with Larry Alintoff.   (Yeah… I'm a long way behind!!!)

The reason…

Despite the fact that we likely trade very different timeframes, markets and methods, I was really pleased to hear Larry describe one way that he seeks trade opportunity – when things that "should" happen, don't happen.

That is one of the themes I've shared through YTC over the last few years.

To have a trader of such high regard validate this idea… well I must say I felt just a little pleased with myself!   🙂

You'll find dozens of references to this idea if you search back through the archives, in either the blog or my social media posts.

The most recent, from memory, would probably be this one – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/studying-a-higher-timeframe-trap/

And of course, those with the YTC Price Action Trader should look to Volume 2, Chapter 3, Page 143.

So I thought, why not look at another example of this idea.

GBP/USD offered an interesting example during the last week. One which is perhaps not as obvious as some of the prior examples.

Let's look to the 4 hour chart at the close last Friday, 9th March.

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

So let's look at Monday's data, still on the 4 hour chart.

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

And now Tuesday…

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

Ha ha!

Ok, it's not all bad.

This is why I wanted to share this one. It makes a nice difference from the previous one which I linked to above (here again if you missed it).

In that prior article, price did break the swing low.

This was the setup in that prior article.

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

As we've seen though, it doesn't always happen this nicely.

Sometimes price doesn't quite break that low.

But it doesn't matter.

Often, just trying to break that low is sufficient.

YTC Price Action Trader readers – see Figure 3.78 on page 143 for another example.

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

Let's drop down to a typical trading timeframe chart, the 5 Min chart, to see how we could have recognised this failure to continue lower.

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

In fact, just the day before, on Monday, I'd shared this example from the emini Nasdaq futures, via social media:

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

Here is the outcome…

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

A strong momentum drive often leaves an expectation in many traders of continuation, should price break the momentum drive extreme. Any failure of that break, or an inability to even quite get that far, can provide a reasonable move back in the opposite direction.

I'm a big fan of this concept – when things that "should" happen, don't happen.

Keep an eye out for it in your markets and your timeframes. Archive and study a few examples. And consider adding it to your trading toolkit, should you also find them to offer great opportunity.

Higher Timeframe Forex - When the Market Can't Push Lower

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

 

The market has opened and rallied. Not with great strength. In fact it's quite slow. But it rallies with a clear bullish bias.

It's clear of all S/R levels, above the prior day's high resistance (now support) and well short of the next higher timeframe resistance level.

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade opportunity in such a case is ideally sought in the bullish direction.

YTC Price Action Trader readers – the first and second principles apply here and we're looking ideally for PB/CPB opportunity, with the trend.

However, there are times when I'll also look to take counter-trend opportunity, within this market environment.

Not always. But sometimes it's just screaming out to be traded. This is one of those times.

And not with any intention of catching a reversal. Just a scalp from the edges back to the mean.

Here's what I was seeing. We'll look at the TTF first, but we'll follow that up with the HTF chart, because it stands out better there and is much easier to see.

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Trade Opportunity at Spike Highs

Keep watch on the charts for anything unusual. Anything that is different.

It may just provide trade opportunity.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

Studying a Higher Timeframe Trap

 

There are some common themes that run through the articles I produce at YTC. One of these, which has been here since the beginning, is the importance of creating a Market Structure & Price Action Journal.

Every day, find something that amazes you in the charts. Print it out. Cover it with notes. Study it. File it. And review your journal often. It really will be the greatest trading book… EVER!

Over time, I promise you will start to see patterns within the market structure or price action, which repeat themselves again and again and again.

Like this, which we shared via social media way back in 2015:

What doesn't happen... is important information! 

This is a structural feature that I see repeated again and again and again.

Here's another previous example – http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/trading-failed-expectations/

And of course, those with the YTC Price Action Trader should look to Volume 2, Chapter 3, Page 143.

But let's look to an example which occurred last week, on a higher timeframe chart.

Yes… it's an idea which you will find in all markets and all timeframes!

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Studying a higher timeframe trap

Happy trapping,

Lance Beggs