Day After Monster Trend Day


For the last seven years I've been highly recommending traders keep a Market Structure Journal for recording and studying any interesting market structure and price action observations.

In my opinion this will become the greatest book in your trading library, by a long margin. Certainly the most valuable in terms of quality content.

Every day… find something of interest in the charts. Print it out, study it and add notes. File it in your journal. And review it often.

Usually traders will produce their journal in one of two ways.

(1) Based upon themes. Choose a theme for the current month, such as: "This month I will study the price action which forms the low of the day for clues that may have alerted me to this being a significant low." Then next month, replace it with another theme.

(2) Completely freeform. Simply focus on whatever stands out the most from the current session. For example, "Today's climactic exhaustion into prior resistance is amazing. Let's study that; and in particular that opportunity to fade the move on the weaker retest of the highs".

Today's article fits more in the "completely freeform" category in that it's based upon something that stood out in the markets.

But with a slight twist.

Instead of focusing on the feature of interest (a monster trend day), I thought it would be a good idea to look at what follows it (the day after a monster trend day).

While there is value in studying a price action sequence which stood out during a session, there is also exceptional value in studying what comes after it.

One example (such as provided here) cannot give a complete and accurate picture about "how to trade the day after a monster trend day". At best, it may provide us with a hypothesis which can be explored as further examples are found in future trading sessions. Over time our Market Structure Journal will be populated by other similar occurrences. And as we get 20+ examples of "day after monster trend day" we'll start to see some common features that allow us to establish some "rules of thumb" for extracting profits from these days.

Last Friday's Crude Oil session provided a monster trend day.

Let's start by looking at the daily and 30 minute charts to get an idea of what happened that day.

Day After Trend Day

Day After Trend Day - 30 min perspective

Certainly this day was worthy of it's own journal entry.

But let's check out what followed. Because while we might not be able to recognise a monster trend till part-way through the session, we will always know when we're about to commence trading a "day after monster trend day".

So it will be very handy to have some "rules of thumb" in place for what to expect following a monster trend day, if that is at all possible.

Let's examine this one occurrence, from Monday 1st June, and see if we can find anything interesting.

We'll use a combination of both 30 and 5 min charts, simply because they fit the required data into my article image sizes. In producing your own journal entries you will typically use your higher timeframe (or higher) for structural analysis and the trading timeframe for price action analysis.

Let's look first to see what immediately followed the monster trend day. Did it produce any significant follow-through in the overnight data?

Day After Trend Day - Overnight Data

The overnight data showed no continuation of Friday's bullish sentiment. So let's look now to the 5 minute chart to see where Monday opens within Friday's range… and where that is with respect to key structural areas. 

Day After Trend Day - Checking the Open

What does this weak open mean from the perspective of other traders? Let's put ourselves in the mindset of anyone caught up in the excitement of Friday's trend, and entering the market LONG.

Day After Trend Day - Other Traders Perspective

Ok… weak overnight data and a weak open. Let's see how the session now plays out, first with regards to any attempts to breach the resistance level.

And then finally for the whole session. 

Day After Trend Day - First Swing Finds Resistance

Day After Trend Day- Second Swing Finds Resistance

Day After Trend Day - Whole Session is Contained

One observation is of course insufficient to make this claim.

But this is a great example of how we use the Market Structure Journal to study the structure and price action and develop useful rules of thumb for how to read and trade the markets. The first example has led to an observation and a hypothesis. Now… find another 20 or so examples and see if you can confirm or rule out the hypothesis, or perhaps identify some other completely different characteristics and another useable rule of thumb.

Hypothesis: A Day After a Monster Trend Day, which shows no follow through overnight and a weak open, is likely to remain rangebound within prior session S/R levels.

If our hypothesis proves correct then these days may well give us good levels to trade off.

Now… it's your turn… print this article, or make some summary notes, and place it in your Market Structure Journal. And then find another 20 or so examples in coming months. Let me know what you find.

Best of luck,

Lance Beggs

Written by

YourTradingCoach - Admin

19 Comments to “Day After Monster Trend Day”

  1. Tom James says:

    Hi Lance,

    You’ve already mentioned previously in one of your posts about the development of ranging market after a massive trend. And today you have shown great another example of the same hypothesis. I realized the importance of developing hypothesis, price action analysis and journaling,
    through your posts and started the same which are showing fruitful results. Each and everyone of your posts show the greatness in you.

    Thank you,

    Tom James

    • Lance Beggs says:

      Hi Tom,

      Thanks. I’m glad you enjoyed the article. And even more pleased to hear that you’re creating your own journal and finding positive results. That’s awesome! 🙂

      All the best,

  2. Eli says:

    Thank you very much for your excellent and thoughtful analysis. I have just begun this journey of option and future trading, and only recently completed your candlestick and price bar videos series. I will be spending much more time on your site to develop my understanding of the basics. Thanks again. Eli

    • Lance Beggs says:

      Hi Eli,

      Thanks for your great feedback. I’m pleased to hear you found value in the YouTube video series. 🙂

      All the best with your trading,
      Lance Beggs.

  3. Pat says:

    Why is this important? we never know what is to the right of the chart anyhow. Range bound or not, my entry criteria would remain the same. my exit criteria would still be based on s/r holding or being broken.
    sorry Mr. Beggs what am i missing conceptually here?

    • Lance Beggs says:

      Hi Pat,

      Having some expectations for the likely day-type can help in adjusting your trade management style to better suit the environment.

      If you know that a day after trend day is likely to be a rangebound session (at least initially, until proven otherwise) then you’ll lean more towards taking profit at targets rather than holding any of the position for potential runner.

      Or if you know, through having built up a comprehensive market structure journal, that a break from a double inside day has the potential to be a strong trend day, then you’ll again adjust your trade management style accordingly. You’ll perhaps be more willing to hold a position open through any short-term retracement, in expectation that the trend has a higher probability of continuing.

      You won’t always have a clear expectation for the type of day that will follow. But when you do it can help improve the quality of your decision making.

      If the nature of your trade decision making never adapts to any environmental changes, then you’ll have no need for this at all. But I don’t know anyone who operates in such a manner.


      • Pat says:

        TY sir, this indeed is releveant and thankyou for the enrichment!
        If you would like to know more of the discretionry approach i follow, please contact me. i cant give it out publically!

        • Angelo says:

          hi Pat/Lance
          I haven’t purchased Lances product but have been around enough to i haven’t seen any other discretionary coaches providing trading insights, with logic and clarity in a in consistent and uncertain environment, the way Lance does, so i’m real curious as to what else can be introduced to the equation to make it clearer or simpler,
          or is there something “I” am missing conceptually???

          I’ll leave it to lance to forward my email,
          regards curious

          • pat says:

            Angelo , I am bloodygood at trading. I only discovered Mr. Beggs recently and was astonished to find someone who is TELLING IT LIKE IT is. The focus on small timeframes is what most industry people will say is noise. Believe Beggs not them.l can promise you helooks at markets correctly.

          • Angelo says:

            Hey Pat,
            not sure if you feel offended, none intended, i agree with you re Lance, i may have been un clear in my original post but to put it plainly, you mentioned discretionary trading you follow, i am curious what he/you are doing different, that would help,
            cheers ~a~

          • Lance Beggs says:

            Hi Angelo,

            You asked, “i am curious what he/you are doing different”. I can’t speak for Pat obviously. But for myself, the following blog post outlines how I see myself differentiating from all other discretionary PA educators:

            As to the YTC Price Action Trader, it contains additional content and ideas that have not been shared within the newsletter (and will not be), such as Future-Trend Projection and momentum analysis.

            That being said, you’ve been following the newsletter for six years now. If you have not seen sufficient value in my work so far, I’d suggest it’s probably not the right path for you.


          • pat says:

            Hey Angelo no offence seen or taken. I am new here and its not my place to discuss how i see the markets. It took me a long time to develop what i do and i had the help of a tutor that chose to help me. After thousands of trades my outlook on markets began to morph. Now , i am simply unable to take a trade on anything longer than an m1 time frame . Anything above m15 for me is certainly fortune telling and little more. ( i do still have a weakness and penchant for geometry over longer frames). As such i have pretty much abandoned looking at any analysis on sites that are based on h4 etc. (I do look and chortle occassionally) A bitter pill to swallow i know, but it leads to time efficient trading and freedom from the retail herd stop hunting that goes on day in day out. Now i ride those moves on smaller timeframes, when enough elements align for sufficient probability .i suspect the guy that helped me evolve had studied the work of Mr Beggs as i see many similarities in approach. I hope this is helpful to you and i hope Mr Beggs that you dont mind my posts.

          • Angelo says:

            Hi Pat
            wondered if i’d hear back from you, thanks for clarifying that for me,
            there is enough mud slinging on these sites i didn’t want to muddy up LB’s, i went from assuming i offended you to potentially offending Lance, as i said i haven’t purchased his product but i didn’t state why, as LB advised me I’ve been getting the news letters for 6 yrs, but it’s only the past few months they actually mean something, for many reasons one being the time frame for the same reasons you mentioned, the reason i haven’t yet purchased it is because i’m a bit overloaded with going from one thing to another, i recently (few moths ago) paid for another ebook that has left me very underwhelmed, bar a few nuggets and just need a break, off to europe in a few weeks, i may purchase it if i get REAL bored or i will purchase it when i get back,
            Are you open to being contacted?

          • Lance Beggs says:

            Thanks Pat! 🙂

  4. pat says:

    Im sorry Angelo but i dont have a proven track record in teaching technical analysis and i feel it would be improper to do so. I can only say that Mr Beggs, from the articles i have read so far, is a safe pair of hands. All approaches that stray from the trodden path may seem obtuse or difficult at first but with time and dilligence new perspectives will reveal themselves to you. I can assure you i have been through maddening frustration early on, seeing positions taken on large timeframes turn bad before profit taking. Imo the market is structured to cause pain and misery. Do you ever wonder why so many mainline forums call detailed timeframes untradable noise? All big moves begin with first steps. Can these steps be identified on h1 bars that by definition have no internal modelling? The answer for me simply is no. I hope this helps in illustrating that much of this is a game, and key players love to mislead traders with nonsense based on longer timeframes.
    ironically, i do know traders that are sucessful on h4 etc, but they (he actually) is a master trader and i do not know how hedoea it. I hipe thia is helpful to you

    • Angelo says:

      Hi Pat,
      appreciate your reply and for considering i was requesting a mentor, I’m sure you know the benefit of such access, so i wont hide behind the fact, if you were to offer it, i wouldn’t have declined, that said, finding someone who has traveled the path can provide or uncover obstacles that may not be related to trading necessarily, conversations are literally difficult to come by when mostly the only access is websites and forums or emailed communication to people like Lance who by the way goes beyond effort to be as helpful and informative as he can to all from what i’ve seen, so i would have been happy with a chat as the path is a lonely and consuming one,
      with regard to time frames I am beginning to see the point of the smaller time frames esp with Lances prior posts on retail vs trade entry, i always felt the there was a smarter option than entering after confirmation but wouldn’t have ever been able to articulate how i felt until i read that post, it has begun a thinking and observing process of how the market is constantly reverting back to a mean in long and short directions & within all time frames, which i assume smaller time frames traders have an advantage, it has also provided more trading opportunities avoiding being frustrated waiting for another set up with less risk,
      i don’t want to come across like i am a competent trader but these are new and inspiring views for me and wouldn’t have been able to articulate before now, unfortunately i want to run before i can crawl, hence the need for a chat,,
      trade well
      Kr angelo

      • pat says:

        Hi Angelo . The reason i have been posting here is genuine excitement to have found a person that does what i do ( i still have a long way to go to be at LB standard, there is much he does i must internalise) i am even considering getting his course , even
        though my methodology is well formed.what i can say is you have found the source of a river rich in minerals in Lance.
        It just wouldn t be cricket for me to make a contact through this site, as it is the intellectual property of LB. I hope the fact that as a sucessful practitioner , i view this chap as one of two people i would ever listen to makes an impact on you and helps you to commit to the approach advocated here.
        I will say the following and hope i do not go beyond the pail in doing so Mr Beggs.
        1) s and r is relevant and small tf
        2)pa is relevant.even on tick charts
        3) the metagame will be the final fontier of your learning . Understanding mechanistic aspects will bring you sucess . Many hours of screen time will slowly enhance your understanding of what Mr. Beggs calls meta. At that point you will be laughing and shorting the last ten pips of a fall and reversing within 3 pips of the bottom exactly on que! I rwalise at thia point some might want me to show evidence of the skill i am inferring from my posts. I can do this should LB require it but would not dream of it otherwise .

        • Angelo says:

          Hi Pat,
          thank you for being a ballast in these waters, i’m sure Lance appreciates testimonials from non clients as much as his own,
          I believe we have gone a full circle,
          i am intrigued, if it contributes to us all, open the gates of knowledge and experience (you may need a stick though)
          kudos to both of you

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