Did You Miss the Opening Drive?

Did the market open and drive strongly in one direction, with you sitting on the sidelines unable to find a way in?

Don’t stress.

There is good news.

Let me share some email Q&A from a reader of the YTC newsletter and YTC Price Action Trader ebook series, and then I’ll add some additional comments below.

Email Received:

 

Hi Lance

Over the last several weeks we had several days with very strong trends right at the Open in the US-Index-Futures – such as today.

While I really try to follow the concepts of the PAT-eBooks, sometimes it hits me really hard NOT to find an appropriate entry.

Today the NQ (2min-chart) moved down USD 1000 per contract in less than a half an hour – and I was watching it from the sidelines (again…):

– I passed on a TST right after the Open, since my estimated T1 was very close and risk:reward seemed ugly

– I passed on a first tiny two-bar-pullback, since it was “right into S/R”

– I passed on a second even smaller one-bar-pullback since it was “right into S/R”

I understand that minimizing risk should be the top priority, so no trade without good parameters.

But – does such a situation never puzzle you? Is my mind simply “still too amateur” as it really bites me watching such moves instead being aboard?

Or is there any halfway acceptable approach to join such a heavy train – without blindly jumping in?

Kind regards,
(name removed)

 

 missed opportunity in the opening drive

 

My Reply:

 

So you missed the opportunity that was available in one half hour period of price action. Really? So what?

Is this the only half hour that will provide opportunity in your whole trading career? I’d suggest not.

Sorry if it sounds like I’m being a smart-a##. That’s certainly not my intent. Rather I want you to put this into perspective.

Strong trending moves like this are NOT the most common type of environment you’ll face. They’re an outlier. And if you miss them, so what. Certainly review them to see if (a) was there any way you could have caught the move using your usual method of trading, or (b) is there any way that is not part of your current method, that could perhaps be explored as an addition to your method of trading? But do not beat yourself up because the environment that the market offered was not a type that you are able to catch.

There were perhaps potential entries via lower timeframe action. But most likely I would have missed all of this as well.

But here’s the thing.

There was opportunity after this. Were you able to take advantage of the opportunity available when the market stopped it’s opening drive move? Or were you still stuck in the past, regretting missed opportunity?

Did you look at a short entry at the top at around 16:12 as price retested your S/R level from below?

Did you look for a long at the test of the session lows at around 16:26?

Did you take the pullback at 17:34?

Not all price action will be optimised for your strategy or your current mindset. If you can’t find a way to get in, let it go. Keep your mind focused on future opportunity. Don’t keep it stuck in the past.

All you need is one good move per day. If you miss an excellent opening drive, so be it. The good news is that there is some clear sentiment driving the market today. You missed one good move. There will most likely be more. Watch for that next one that does fit within your plan.

Hope that helps.

 

 did you trade these setups

 

Email Received:

 

Dear Lance

Thank you so much for your answer – exactly what I needed to set my mind straight again.

I know that such days – or better: such “half hours” – are rare. Probably during eight out of ten such situations I’m able to stay calm and patient, especially thanks to your Price Action Trader ebooks.

Only once or twice in every other (long) while, my old thinking hits me and I start feeling desperate by watching such price action from the sidelines. Then some voice inside my head starts whispering stuff like “how will you ever make it if you’re not even able to earn one dollar while seemingly the whole world makes $1000/contract in 30 minutes” – in such moments my mind even denies the fact that for each dollar which this “whole world” seemingly wins another “world” has to lose the same amount – and then my year-long grail-search-thinking kicks in (“everyone but me knows how to join such a stampede, so finally find it!”).

Thank you for taking your time evaluating the chart for later possibilities.

– I did miss the Short around 16:12, since I was too busy writing my lamenting email to you (which makes me really feel even more ashamed)

– I did take the countertrend Long near 16:28 for a BOF (just after I figured how amateur my email really was)

– And yes, I entered Short for a BPB around 17:34

So, after all, I did make some good money, more important did not lose on any stupid “jump-ins”, and finally and most important got my mind set back where it rather should be – and all this thanks to you!

I wish you an excellent start into the new week.

Thank you so much.

 

My Reply:

 

Well done on clearing your mind and getting back into the market for these further opportunities. Many people just go to pieces after missing a large opening drive, either digging themselves into a hole or just standing aside through the remainder of the session and missing even further opportunity. It’s a very positive sign, in my opinion. I’d say that was a successful trading day for you. Lessons learnt… and initial frustration successfully overcome.

This lesson is a good one for all – don’t be afraid to stand aside if the environment is not offering something that suits your trading approach – but remain alert for following opportunities.

I recall once reading the following quote, which I absolutely love. Unfortunately I can’t remember who wrote it.

“One million dollars over one million trades.”

It’s a great reminder that this is a long-term game. We don’t have to catch every move. We don’t have to profit every day.

 

Final Comments:

 

Did the market open and drive strongly in one direction, with you sitting on the sidelines unable to find a way in?

Don’t stress.

There is good news.

A strong opening drive indicates strong sentiment within the market participants. If you missed the opening drive… let it go. Don’t dwell on the past. Don’t let regret blind you to further opportunity. Volatility will rarely stop suddenly. If there was opportunity from the open, there is a good chance of further opportunity ahead.

Clear your mind.

Forget the missed opportunity.

Enjoy the challenge.

Focus.

Be sure that you get the next one.

Cheers,

Lance Beggs

 


 

 

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YourTradingCoach - Admin

5 Comments to “Did You Miss the Opening Drive?”

  1. Varun says:

    Hi Lance

    Thanks for sharing this wonderful post.
    Found myself many times in this situation but was lucky to focus ahead.

    varun

  2. Donald says:

    Hi Lance,

    If you had been in this session, would you have found an entry long another retest the low in about 16:45 right after test at 16:26. I see a weeker downward and 3 lower tail candles.

    Weeker move with 3-bull-showing-candles?? Is is reasonable to find an entry long?

    • Lance Beggs says:

      Hi Donald,
      I have absolutely no reason to rule out a trade at this time and location. And absolutely no reason to imagine I wouldn’t also attempt to be long at that point. The reply to the original question simply listed those further opportunities that did work, asking if the trader managed to profit from them. It didn’t consider other trades.
      Depending upon the LTF data and (ultimately) the trade management decisions, I’d expect any long at this point would result in a small loss or breakeven result. It is possible it could also lead to another successful short, were the trader to flip to a short position as price held below the support level. The LTF data may well show a good entry into a BPB situation.
      Cheers,
      Lance

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