Ok, not really. But the market participants have memory. And they have somewhat predictable human nature. And that is what leads to patterns in structure creating familiar outcomes. And the saying that the market doesn’t repeat, it rhymes. We saw this in a prior article: The Market Rhymes (AKA Don’t Screw Up the Second Opportunity)…
Right and wrong are actually poor terms to use when discussing analysis. Everything is of course “probabilities”. More correctly we should possibly refer to our ability to make positive or negative expectancy decisions and whether not the outcome falls in our favour. But I assume you know what I mean. So let’s go… You WILL…
Here’s a simple rule-of-thumb which I’ve found very effective over the years… If price fails to do something twice, always consider the opposite. “Something” refers an attempt at a significant move. A break of a key level, for example. Or a break of structure. Or, in this case, an attempt to push lower following a…
How nice is this market open… And I’ll admit it looks damn tempting. But wait! I’m not just playing price action. I’m playing the metagame. I’m viewing the market not just as price movement and patterns, but also as PEOPLE whose trade decisions create the price movement and patterns. I’m trading AGAINST those traders who…
So very, very true: “Sometimes you’re going to have games where you just have to grind it out. And the teams that can find ways to win these type of games are going to be successful.” – Candace Parker, Professional Basketball Player, Chicago Sky (WNBA) And so very applicable to trading. Let’s create a trading…
Context, setup and execution. A good trade will have considered all three areas before entry. And a good trade will have elements of all three playing their part in the outcome. The best read on market context will be worthless if you’re choosing the wrong setup for that environment (eg. constantly fighting a strong trend)….
I’m a big fan of using calendar events in managing my trading business. A chance to close out one chapter and to start another. So here we are in July, midway through the year. And I want to suggest to you that this offers the perfect opportunity to pause and reflect on your performance so…
Sometimes the simplest ideas are the best. And this one is REALLY simple. For years I’ve stated that my default option with half-day holiday sessions is to stand aside. Let them go. Volume is low and opportunity is most often limited. On those rare occasions when I do trade them, when there might be some…
Monday started with some obvious expectations. It’s a simple plan to start the session. A sideways trend in the pre-market, with clear and obvious range boundaries to trade off (BPB / PB) as the market drives hard for either gap fill or gap continuation. But wait! Do you remember this from back in February? …
We’ve all felt that temptation to move the stop. It’s easy to rationalise, at the time. “It just needs a little more room. And just this once. I promise!“ Here’s the reality though: You weren’t really “giving the trade more room”. You were scared of taking the loss and afraid to admit it. You didn’t…
