Let me give an example of a point made in the Trends & Channels video, in which I stated the following:

With hindsight it’s always easy! So when you see educators marking up charts saying, "See how the trendline defines the trend… and see how you could have entered here and here and here". Don’t blindly accept this. But instead look at the chart and confirm whether that is actually how it would have appeared at the right hand edge of the chart. Or have they just marked it up with the benefit of hindsight.

Hindsight is easy! Live… is never as simple!

Here's an example. Let's assume you were shown the following chart, demonstrating the potential for channels to provide exceptional trade entry locations.

hindsight charting

What's the problem with this chart?

Simply the fact that it was chosen with hindsight to demonstrate the concept.

Setups 2 and 3 are absolutely fine.

However Setup 1 would NOT have been taken based upon this channel, as the channel is highly unlikely to have been placed on your chart at the time of the setup. The bearish trendline is only obvious AFTER Setup 1 has started moving into profits. Even then it's only a "potential trendline"; having been defined via only two swing highs.

If Setup 1 was taken as a trade at all, it was for a different reason. It was not due to the channel.

Here's how this market looked at the time of the test of the upper channel line, in the vicinity of Setup 1.

hindsight charting

I'm not accusing these educators of deception; more likely the problem is simply lack of attention in preparation of their educational content. (Hey, I'm probably guilty of this myself once or twice!). Most examples shown will typically be chosen with hindsight, to demonstrate the concept being discussed. And the fact is that laziness or rushing of preparation can result in capturing and marking up what appears to be a beautiful example… only because of the fact that we can see the completed pattern. At the hard right edge of the screen, at the time of the alleged setup, the charts quite possibly offered a very different story.

This type of error in education material is not massively prevalent, but I do see it from time to time in seminar or webinars. So keep an eye out for it.

I imagine this type of critical analysis of education material will assist your learning as it will force you to actively consider and apply the topic of discussion, rather than just receive it passively. And as an added bonus… it can be quite fun to catch them out.


Lance Beggs

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