Tag Archives: Performance

You Don’t Have To Trade EVERYTHING


This chart is from Thursday 19th March 2020. A couple of quick trades and then STOPPED. Done for the day.

<image: Two winners - and stopped. Why?>

Why stop?

Because today was a Hit & Run day!

Trading is a performance activity. And it's our job to manage ourselves in an attempt to get as close to peak performance as possible.

Good sleep routines, healthy eating, exercise. And some degree of separation of "life issues" from our trading day.

All good… and fairly easy… until a pandemic is unleashed across the world.

I expect most of us will be operating with heightened levels of anxiety and stress at the moment. I'll be the first to admit that this period of time has been harder on me than I expected. Having two daughters working as nurses provides an interesting mix of pride and anxiety right now.

The markets of course do not care at all how we're feeling. So it's up to us to manage ourselves. Limiting exposure at times when we're unlikely to be on our game. And pushing hard when we are feeling at our best.

Here's how I've chosen to manage my trading over the last few weeks.

Pre-session preparation includes an assessment of my current physical, mental and emotional state. And selection of one of three ways I need to approach the markets today.


My physical state require strict adherence to my 5/12 fatigue management rules. If I have not had sufficient sleep, then there is NO trading.

And for my mental and emotional state, if there are any serious and unresolved problems or anxiety or any other type of distraction, impacting either myself or any member of my immediate family, then there is NO trading.

It's time to step back. Sort myself out. And come back again tomorrow.

The fact is that we don't have to trade EVERYTHING. Let today go.

I'm here for the long haul. I expect to be trading for decades to come. If I miss one day, who cares. It will not make or break my career.


The majority of days though, I'm completely fine. Sufficient sleep, feeling fit and healthy. And feeling in control of the current crisis (at least as it relates to my extended family).

It's time to trade.

Pre-COVID-19 routine: 0930 to 1100 compulsory trading, 1100 to 1200 optional trading.

Current routine: 0930 to 1100 compulsory trading, 1100 to 1600 optional trading but compulsory engagement with the markets, watching and learning.

It's time to trade.


Press hard when in sync with the market. Step back a little when out of sync.

But make sure you're fully present and attacking whatever opportunity comes your way.

3. HIT & RUN

This is for those in-between situations. The shades of grey that fit somewhere in-between "obviously unfit to trade" and "hurry up and open the damn markets because I want to trade".

I've had a few of those days lately. I satisfy the fatigue rules. And I'm not overly consumed by current events of the world.

But I feel a little down. A little flat and deflated.

The plan here is for a shortened session. Hype myself up. Get in and attack the market. And then get out.

Hit and run.

And then take some time out for personal rest and recovery.

There are many ways to do this.

I've informally adopted the following plan:

(a) Trade the opening sequence.

(b) If I'm sitting on a loss then stop. Take the hit. Don't risk making it worse.

(c) If I'm sitting on greater than 2R profits then stop. Take the money and don't risk giving it back.

(d) But if somewhere in-between, I'll allow myself to make a call here based upon how I feel. Either take what I've got, or push on for one hour maximum to see if I can get to the 2R target.

Why one hour? Through personal experience I know I can hype myself up to focus sufficiently for about an hour. But beyond that, motivation starts to drop. Maybe you can do more?

The important point here… again… is that you don't have to trade everything.

If the market offers tremendous opportunity after that opening sequence, or opening hour, who cares.

It's not going to make or break my career. And given my low motivation I probably would have stuffed it up anyway.

So let it go. Take a break. And have a little "personal time".

Typically I find this is sufficient to have me back to 100% the following day. A short break from the markets can do wonders for reigniting the passion and having me eager to get back into the ring for another round of action.

Let's revisit the earlier chart…

<image: Two winners - and stopped. Why?>

<image: Two winners - and stopped. Why?>

The obvious thought here is "But Lance, you missed so much opportunity!"

<image: Two winners - and stopped. Why?>

Another "Hit & Run" day, on Tuesday 24th:

<image: You don't have to trade everything>

You might recall this opening trade from the social media post on Wednesday. If you were wondering how that trade turned out… now you know!

<image: You don't have to trade everything>

<image: You don't have to trade everything>

<image: You don't have to trade everything>

There are days when it is obvious that you shouldn't be trading. Stand aside. Let it go.

There are days when you're feeling great. Keen to get into the action and face the challenge of the markets head on. Go for it. Trade.

But there are also in-between days. When you're just… ok. A little flat. A little lacking in motivation. The last thing you probably need in such a situation is a full session of trading. So shorten it. Reduce the session length. Accept smaller profit targets. And get in there for a quick hit and run. Smash and grab. Two or three trades. Get a profit if you can. And get out of there.

You don't have to trade EVERYTHING. Let it go. And take some time out for YOU.

Take care of yourself. We're in this for the long haul.

Lance Beggs



Pre-Accept All Possible Losses


Last week we discussed a simple technique that helps keep my mindset focused on the price action, rather than on my P&L, after suffering a trade loss.

<image: Pre-Accept All Possible Losses>

You'll find last week's article here if you missed it – https://yourtradingcoach.com/trader/its-how-you-choose-to-react-that-makes-all-the-difference/

So this week… I want to go a little deeper.

Because there is something that needs to be in place BEFORE this technique is applied, if I really want to gain maximum benefit from its use.

A belief system.

At the core of my approach to engaging and acting in the markets.

And that is…

Accept all possible losses before entering the battle!

We have talked about pre-acceptance of individual trade risk before – https://yourtradingcoach.com/trader/pre-acceptance-of-trade-risk/

But today's idea goes well beyond that.

It is about ALL possible losses.

It is about establishing a mindset during pre-session preparation, before the market is open, where I am completely at ease with the idea of MULTIPLE trade losses and closing out the day at the maximum loss limit.

Complete acceptance!

Of all possible losses.

This is the first of six parts of Richard McCall's ACTION Plan, from "The Way of the Warrior-Trader", for developing an effective performance mindset. I highly recommend this book if you're into the idea of applying lessons from samurai philosophy to the trading arena. And of course to get the final five parts of his ACTION Plan.

Accept all possible losses before entering the battle!

In fact, I take it a little beyond acceptance.


It's like acknowledging that the default future is for a full session loss… decreed by the Trading Gods as inevitable unless I can demonstrate sufficient skill to prevent it.

Most traders operate like this:

<image: Pre-Accept All Possible Losses>

And the result is performance anxiety, doubt, hesitation, FOMO and all myriad of other problems.

My plan is to operate like this:

<image: Pre-Accept All Possible Losses>

This doesn't mean I want to end in drawdown. I will do everything in my power to defy the Trading Gods and finish the day somewhere to the right of that line.

It simply means that I'm absolutely fine with the day ending at a complete loss. I've pre-considered the outcome. And accepted that this is something I can manage. Something I can survive. And something that I can overcome.

<image: Pre-Accept All Possible Losses>

Maybe it's just me? Maybe I'm wired a bit strange?

But I don't think so.

If you struggle with the idea of loss, maybe you need to reconsider your relationship to risk. And maybe you could give this a try. I believe it helps me. Maybe it will help you too.

Pre-session… I cast my mind forward several hours and imagine a full session loss. How does that feel? Can I accept that?

If not, then I have no business trading today.

But if I can accept this outcome, then it's game on. Because while the Trading Gods might be planning a full session loss, I'll be damned if I'm going to go there without a fight.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs



It’s How You Choose To React That Makes All The Difference


I love it when we can start off a session with a nice winner.

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

It would be nice to always start off a session with a winner.

But that's not how this works. You WILL start off some days with a losing trade.

And it's how you choose to react that makes all the difference.

You have two primary options:

1. You can take the negative path. The path where you are not in control. The victim mindset where you personalise the loss and make it all about you. "Here we go again. I'm such a loser."

2. You can take the positive path. The path where you remain in control. The mindset where you take the loss as information and use it to drive yourself to higher levels of performance.

The first will increase the likelihood of poor decision making in the next trade sequence.

The second will heighten your level of focus and increase the likelihood of quality decisions and actions.

You do have a choice. And while your subconscious reaction will at times tip you towards a negative outcome, this is a skill which can be developed and improved over time.

Yes, how you react to a setback IS a skill. And you can improve it.

I want to share with you today one technique that I have found useful in shifting my reaction away from the negative and more towards the positive.

It's an initial and immediate conscious recognition of respect for my opponent (the market).

A little smile, a nod, a tip of my hat.

It takes the focus off me. And onto the market.

In a sporting context, it's a bit like pitching a ball to a much younger kid, who not only connects with it but smashes it out of the park. You're not getting down on yourself. Instead, there's a smile. And a nod of the head. And a "Damn! This kid's got some skills!". There is sudden, increased respect. And motivation to get yourself back into the game with increased focus and awareness.

In a market context, you've just taken a loss. Get the focus off yourself and onto the market, through a conscious recognition of respect for your opponent.

Smile. Nod your head. "Damn! Nicely done. I'll give you that one!".

And then focus. There are more trades coming and they need your full attention.

Give it a try.

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

<image: It's how you choose to react that makes all the difference>

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs



Quality Vs Quantity


Trading offers you incredible freedom of choice. You have almost complete control over when and where you will take on risk. And of course, how much risk.

<image: Quality Vs Quantity>

But while this freedom is great in theory, it's potentially devastating for many who are still searching for their edge.

I suspect MANY developing traders would find that there is great power in applying limits to this freedom.

I was chatting in recent weeks with a trader who made this breakthrough. His problem was a common one – overtrading. In particular when in drawdown, where he would keep grinding the session deeper and deeper into negative territory.

It was always obvious with the benefit of hindsight that he was out of sync with the price movement. The smart decision would have been to stand aside. But he was unable to accept this at the time, always sure that the next trade would be the one to turn everything around.

His solution… self-imposed limits to his trading.

Not just when in drawdown.


<image: Quality Vs Quantity>

Feel free to change this to any other number which suits your needs. Maybe you'll prefer two. Maybe four or five.

All are fine, provided it's MUCH LESS than the typical number of trades you take each day when allowed free reign.

This provides are two key advantages.

Limiting the number of trades each day:

  • Allows you permission to wait for QUALITY trade ideas.
  • Limits the potential for deep drawdown through overtrading while out of sync with the market action.


Let's demonstrate through a hypothetical example:

"My Trade Plan – Today is FOMC Day, with the FOMC Statement due at 14:00 and the Press Conference at 14:30. I will stand aside prior to these events due to the increased potential for unfavourable price movement. From 14:30, I will seek a maximum of three trades only, noting that my best performing setup in post-news environments is the first pullback following commencement of a new directional trend (like demonstrated here)."

<image: Quality Vs Quantity>

<image: Quality Vs Quantity>

With great freedom comes great responsibility. (Thanks to Voltaire, Eleanor Roosevelt, Stan Lee and the many others who have expressed this idea in numerous forms!)

If you find yourself struggling through too many poor trade ideas, consider applying limits to your trading activity.

Allow yourself three trades per day.

Try it.

Maybe the solution to finding your edge will come through a focus on QUALITY rather than QUANTITY.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs



Thoughts Leading into the New Year


My performance last year… NO LONGER MATTERS.


I am scheduling time during my Christmas and New Year break for three major areas of focus:


I don't yet know the challenges that I'll face in the new year, but I know that I will be ready.

As the opening bell rings on day one, I will be primed for peak performance.

Physically, mentally and emotionally recharged.

Confident, alert and FOCUSED.


I don't yet know the market conditions that I'll face in the new year, but I know that I will be ready.

And I will have learnt from the lessons of the past.

My performance and process reviews will have identified both successes and failures.

That which I did poorly… I'll know exactly how to improve.

And that which I did well… I'll know exactly how to do better.


I don't yet know the price sequences that I'll face in the new year, but I know that I will be ready.

Clearly defined goals.

Clearly defined routines.

All set for quality decision making and process-driven focus, no matter what the markets throw at me.

Rest… review… and prepare!

When the new year comes… I'll be ready.

Will you?

Lance Beggs

<image: Rest - Review - Prepare> 



Chasing Performance


Here's a little post-session exercise which may help stretch your performance to "never-before-reached" profit levels.

Pick a target just above your all-time-high for a trading session. Whatever that is – $100, $500, $1000, $5000 or more.

And ask yourself the following.

Looking at the chart for today's session, with the benefit of hindsight, how could I have achieved an all-time high in profits?

It's not about beating yourself up for having failed to reach new highs. Most days you won't reach them.

But it's about pushing yourself. Never settling for mediocrity. Always stretching to achieve more.

Look at the chart. Look at your trades.

Were there were price sequences which you failed to see? Is there some way you could you have captured them?

Were there price sequences in which you underperformed? Could you have taken more out of the move? Could you have increased size somehow? Could you have re-entered if stopped out? Could you have extended the targets or trailed price differently?

If you somehow did manage to squeeze all the profits out of your strategy that day, then ask if there were other ways could you have viewed price and profited? Operate from an assumption that there WAS some way to have achieved new all-time highs today. NOW FIND IT.

And just maybe… next time… you'll take the lessons learnt and actually push through to achieve these new levels of performance.

<image: Chasing Performance>

<image: Chasing Performance>

<image: Chasing Performance>

<image: Chasing Performance>

<image: Chasing Performance>

LWP Reference (for those who want to review the concept) – Vol 3, Ch 4, pp 72-77

<image: Chasing Performance>

<image: Chasing Performance>

<image: Chasing Performance>

<image: Chasing Performance>


Consider your outcome. And compare it with your all-time high.

Review the charts and find ways you could have stretched yourself to never-before achieved levels of performance.

Perhaps next time, this exercise might just help you reach the new target.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs



Improving and Maintaining FOCUS for Day Traders


This is not for those who trade longer timeframes. If you trade the 15 minute chart or higher then you should NOT be aiming for constant screen watching all day. Set alarms to monitor price on completion of each trading timeframe candle. And price alerts to bring your attention back to the charts at key levels.

If you trade the 5 minute chart, perhaps you'll want a blend of the two. Alerts when price is well clear of potential setup areas. Screen watching only when there is potential for trade opportunity.

But below 5 minutes, you'll likely want to spend considerable time watching the price movement.

And for you, it's important that you develop a plan to achieve peak-performance levels of focus.

<image: FOCUS>

Photo by Stefan Cosma on Unsplash

Here are my thoughts:

Let's start by reviewing one of the key ideas in the article on discipline.

Read it here if you missed it: https://yourtradingcoach.com/trader/how-can-i-get-more-discipline/

In that article, I suggested that you can't "get more discipline". Discipline is actually an outcome. And it comes about through effective HABITS and STATE MANAGEMENT.

The same applies when we think about focus.

Focus is not something you can just get more of. Again, it's an outcome. And it comes about through HABITS and STATE MANAGEMENT.

We aim for habitual use of processes in our pre-session, during session and post-session routines, in order to establish a focused state. And to return quickly to the focused state if our mind should start to wander.

And we aim to place our body, mind and soul in as much of a peak-performance state as we can, in order to best maintain effective levels of presence, awareness and FOCUS.

So let's split this article into two parts, turning the idea of "focus" into a daily habit, and then ensuring effective state management.

Here's my plan:


1. The Power of Intention

There is nothing I've found more powerful in kick-starting my daily habit and ensuring disciplined focus than the power of intention.

This is a documented part of my pre-session routine.

It is simply a verbal statement of intent that "Today I WILL focus on the charts. I will not allow myself to open my browser for any non-trading purpose".

That is obviously set up for my most common distracter. "I'll just have a quick look at email and social media."

Adjust the statement to suit your own needs. But be sure to give it a try.

I can confirm through having monitored this as part of my review process, that days which begin with a verbal statement of intent are typically more focused than days when I did not make the statement of intent.

2. My Focus Statement

This is used during the session, whenever I have caught my attention wandering.

Here it is via a recent share on social media:

<image: FOCUS>

3. Regular Checks

Every 30 minutes I check my personal state. This includes an assessment on how effective I was in maintaining focus.

If particularly good or bad, I'll jot down some notes.

These then feed into the post-session review.

And if poorly focused, it's back to the statement of intent and the focus statement (above). 

4. The Focus Alarm

I don't always use a focus alarm. I find if used continuously that it tends to just disappear into the "background" after a while.

But from time to time, in particular if slightly fatigued, it has helped.

It's simply an alarm that goes off on the close of EVERY trading timeframe candle. It sounds a bit extreme. But it works. You can of course set it for longer if you prefer. Or shorter.

But it acts as a "wake up" to not only shock me back into focus if I've slipped away again, but also allowing me to "update" my market analysis with this new candle information.

I use SnapTimer, but there are dozens online if you don't like it.

5. Post-Session Review

The 30 minute notes on your ability to maintain focus are pointless if you don't review them.

So post-session… review them.

And then, if you were not particularly effective, aim to identify why and find a way to improve tomorrow.

State Management

1. Eliminate Distraction

Your mind cannot be focused if it's surrounded by multiple temptations or distractions.

The mind is NOT a multi-tasker.

Remove all distractions – social media, internet, phones, pets, kids, and whatever else acts to take your attention away from the charts.

For web browsers, you can find apps which block access to them during preset times each day. Keep one browser available though (not the one you usually use for surfing). If your platform goes down or you get other tech issues, you're going to want some way of getting online quickly.

2. Adequate Rest

Set a minimum standard for rest. And stick to it.

See here for mine – https://yourtradingcoach.com/trader/trader-fatigue-management/

3. Adequate Hydration

There's a water bottle just off to my right. Always accessible.


Get one for your trading room if you don't have one.

4. Physical Health

This kind of goes without saying. If you struggle with focus, exercise better and eat better. Simple!

You will notice improvement in all areas of your life.

5. Relaxation processes

I have regular breathing routines from back in my Tai Chi & Chi Gung days.

If you don't, Google search it.

Find some exercises to relax the mind, body and soul.

6. Stimulants

Coffee pre-session. To be honest I'm not sure on the science of this one. It is effective for me, given the night hours I trade. But not too much. One a half-hour before trading seems to help me. Give it a try.

I have a glucose lolly pre-session. And then a second during the session if I feel a bit flat. See here – http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/21/magazine/do-you-suffer-from-decision-fatigue.html?pagewanted=all

I've heard chocolate helps. But maybe I'm making that one up because, you know, chocolate!   🙂

I've heard blueberries are good for a sharp mind. Give that a try if you're not a fan of chocolate. (Send me your chocolate!)

Chewing gum, while not exactly a stimulant, seems to work well in dissipating any nervous energy that can act as a distraction.

7. Regular Breaks

Always aim to spend a few minutes every half hour AWAY FROM THE DESK.

Get up. Stretch. Go for a walk. Whatever you need.

Just get away from the charts to reset your mind.

8. Regular Exercise

Consider incorporating this into your breaks.

Nothing gives you a "wake up" quite as effectively as a short, sharp burst of exercise.

9. Background Music

Nothing with lyrics. EVER.

But experiment with background ambient music, binaural beats or isochronous tones. Or whatever works the best for you.

It's a process of trial and error. Add this to your post-session review until you find a number of preferred solutions.

10. Standing Desks

I don't have one right now due to the current layout of my trading room. But I've used this in the past to great effect.

Seriously, it works incredibly well.

Raise your desk. And stand back a bit, out of arms reach of the keyboard and mouse.

Step forward ONLY when it's trade time.

It's just you and the charts. Absolutely NO WAY to click on that web browser, even if you wanted to.

If Nothing Else Works

I've yet to see a trader try this but it looks like it has potential.

– – –

Well that just about wraps it up.

What have I missed?

If you have any tips or techniques which you've found effective for improving or maintaining focus, let us know in the blog post comments.

Best of luck,

Lance Beggs



A 50% Win Rate IS Enough


I love this recent email exchange with a new trader…

Email received: (We'll come in mid-stream as the earlier conversation is not relevant to this article!)

Great Lance, thanks for responding and giving me all this information.

I plan on trading highly liquid stocks and probably the intraday with the occasional swing trade. I've been out of the market for a while so I am going through some of the reads you have recommended. Come Into My Trading Room is excellent.

My problem is that I need to fine tune my studies because what I think works ends up not 50% of the time.

I love how you explain things and looking forward to buying your strategies. Your emails are great also. Thanks Lance.


My response:

Thanks. I'm glad you're finding value in my writing.

You said, "My problem is that I need to fine tune my studies because what I think works ends up not 50% of the time."

Obviously I don't have an real insight into how you're trading. But here is a different way of thinking of the problem…

What if 50% winners was enough? What if you could work to capture more of the move in those that did win. And cut the losses quickly on those that lost.

That is, accepting 50/50 and profiting from a higher win/loss size ratio.

Seriously… 50% can be enough.

See here also: https://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/stop-hoping-your-trade-will-win/


His response:

I have never thought of it in that way but now I will!!


Awesome! This is one of the many important breakthroughs that we need to achieve along our path to professional trading.

It's such a simple concept. But it's hard to see. In some ways it goes against our natural desire to win. And we're bombarded daily with advertising copy promoting high win percentage strategies.

But the fact is that long-term profitability is not just a function of our win rate. Just as important is the Win/Loss Size Ratio (WLSR).

  • WLSR = Average Win / Average Loss


If you achieve a 50% win rate across a series of trades you can still profit provided your average win is greater than your average loss.

In my own trading, the win rate is the least important of these trade statistics.

In a 20 trade sample I expect to achieve a win rate anywhere between 40 to 70 percent. But I aim to profit by keeping the average win greater than the average loss.

Yes… 50% can be enough.

50% winners across a whole month can be profitable, provided your average win is greater than your average loss.

50% winners across a whole year can be profitable, provided your average win is greater than your average loss.

50% winners across your career can be profitable, provided your average win is greater than your average loss.

Let's look at a few trades. Obviously eight trades are too small a sample size to really concern ourselves with the stats.

But it's eight trades that provided four wins and four losses.

And yet it profited.

Because the average win was greater than the average loss.

A 50 percent win rate is enough

A 50 percent win rate is enough

A 50 percent win rate is enough

A 50 percent win rate is enough

A 50 percent win rate is enough

A 50 percent win rate is enough

A 50 percent win rate is enough

A 50 percent win rate is enough


By all means, aim for as high a win rate as you can achieve.

But seriously… 50% can be enough.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs


PS. Note: This discussion has excluded consideration of commissions and other business expenses, as they will vary from trader to trader. Obviously while a series of trades may well be profitable in and of themselves, a business profit is only achieved if these trade profits are sufficient to overcome commissions and other expenses. But the fact remains, a 50% win rate will still be sufficient. You'll just need a slightly higher WLSR to cover these costs.



Trader Performance Drills – Part Two


It's six years since we last looked at this topic. Wow!

So it's definitely time to revisit it.

Check out the prior article if you want to see the original drills – https://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/trader-performance-drills/

Today we'll discuss a drill that I've quite enjoyed from time to time over the last six months whenever I've had a spare hour or so to "play".

It provides practice and learning opportunity in real-time assessment of context and market bias. And like all good practice drills you'll received rapid feedback on your decisions.

In particular this drill works to develop the following skills:


  • Skill in timing an entry close to the turning point through recognition of signs that either (a) the context suggests further movement is unlikely, or (b) the nature of price movement suggests that the move has exhausted it's potential.


Trade Management & Exit:

  • Skill in contextual placement of price targets.
  • Skill in real-time assessment of the ongoing validity of these targets, or the need to amend them.
  • Skill in real-time recognition of danger and the need to either partially reduce risk or immediately scratch a position.


Let's set it up…


The Chart Overlay

  • Open a five minute chart. Clear it of all indicators and overlays.
  • Add an EMA(5) based upon the high price (not close price). I colour it green but this is not important to the drill.
  • Add an EMA(5) based upon the low price (not close price). I colour it red but this is not important to the drill.


The result is a very tight channel around price as shown in the image below.

The chart overlay

The indicator parameters


The Performance Drill

Open your Market Replay application.

Select any random date and time.

Now trade with the following plan:

(a) You can ONLY enter trades at or beyond the channel boundaries. You can ONLY enter short ABOVE the channel. You can ONLY enter long BELOW the channel.

(b) EXIT TRADES anywhere you feel necessary in order to both minimise loss and maximise gain.

(c) AIM TO PROFIT over whatever series of trades you complete during this drill exercise.

Entry zone - short

Entry zone - long

Exit as necessary to minimise loss...

... but also to maximise gain.

Additional notes:

1. By all means examine your usual charts alongside this. Feel free to refer to your usual higher and trading timeframe charts for context. And your usual lower timeframe chart to fine-tune your decision making. Market internals or orderflow tools are fine as well. In fact… whatever you normally use for your trading is absolutely fine for this drill. The 5 min EMA channel only provides the limits to the buy and sell areas.

2. I highly recommend speeding up the replay at all times except in the entry zone. For entry, set the real speed so that you can "feel" the movement of price as it would feel in a live environment.

3. You do NOT have to enter on every excursion beyond the channel. In some cases you will miss it anyway as price just tags the channel and moves back away from it. In other cases it would be wise to stand aside, such as fading a strongly directional market. Avoiding a very low probability trade is a good decision!

4. Stop losses – I like to keep this tight in order to practice timing the entry as close as I can to the extremes. I set them at around half the width of the channel. NOTE: Re-entry is always an option if you get stopped out.

5. Remember – the aim is not to profit on every trade. Just like real trading, we aim to profit over the larger series of trades. So take your losses but keep them small. One or two winners should more than compensate for these losing trades.


Real-time Contextual Decision Making

At times this will be easy.

At other times, it will be quite a challenge.

Your only restriction is that you must enter at or beyond the channel boundary. Ideally with quite a tight stop.

Everything else is open to your best judgment, based upon your assessment of context and real-time reading of market bias.

How will you enter?

Will you place a limit order and let it be hit? Sometimes this will give incredible entries. Other times you will be run over, if you misjudged how far price would extend beyond the channel.

Will you wait to see how price behaves beyond the channel before entering at market? Sometimes this will result in a missed trade, when price just tags the entry zone and rapidly moves back into the channel.

Will you scale in? Or go all in on one single entry?

There is no right or wrong.

Just play!

And learn!

That's the beauty of the replay tool, allowing you maximum trade entry and management decisions by speeding up the data in-between trade opportunities.

And in providing rapid feedback to each and every decision you make.

This is not something you will do every day. No-one has time for that. But from time to time when you find yourself with an hour or two available, and a desire to play with some historical price charts, go for it.

And who knows… if you enjoy this you might just be able to expand the rule-set and create a whole trading methodology out of it.  🙂

Other markets

Other markets

Other markets

And other timeframes

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs



A Thought Experiment That Might Just Get You Profitable


Too many people are just spinning wheels and getting nowhere.

Here's what I think.

Many of you have sufficient knowledge and skill to achieve success.

But your focus is on trading rather than on making money.

And the end result of this is too many low probability trades in really bad environments.

Let's fix this now.

What if you had a gun to your head and you HAD to profit over your next 20 trades?

It doesn't matter how long it takes you to get to twenty. And it doesn't matter how small the profit.

The only condition is that you must stick to your risk and money management limits.

You've got 20 trades to show a profit.

How will this change the way you view the markets each day?

What would you do differently?

Just maybe you'll be happy to stand aside and watch. Stalking the market. Waiting till the bias is so clear that it's screaming out to be traded.

Just maybe… you'll prove to yourself that you can profit over 20 trades.

And if you can?

Then just do it again.

And again.

And again.

Maybe you already are a trader, but you just haven't realised it yet because you're too busy trying to trade.

What if you had a gun to your head and you HAD to profit over your next 20 trades?

What would you do differently?

Why aren't you doing this NOW?

20 trades!

Good luck!

I believe you CAN do it.

Lance Beggs