Last week we discussed one of my current favourite plays for the first 30-60 minutes of the session – targeting the overnight high (ONH) or overnight low (ONL).
You can review last week's discussion here.
Just a few hours after sending out that email the market opened again. And the same concept played out once more. Let's check it out.
You don't have to manage your trades like this. It's just the way that makes most sense to me. If there is any threat of a trade moving into negative territory, I prefer to scratch it and reassess, rather than holding and hoping for it to recover.
Sometimes that works to my advantage. Other times it doesn't.
This method of trade management does require you to be completely comfortable with re-entering.
If you're not able to easily re-enter, you'll be better operating with a wider stop and a more passive set & forget style. On this particular day, your trade would have worked out fine.
Back to the trade…
As mentioned in the prior article, there is a very high probability that the overnight high or overnight low will be hit at some point during the session.
And a good probability that it will occur within the opening hour of the session.
I could give you stats for the last few months. But I'd rather you find them yourself. You'll learn more this way.
If it interests you, spend some time over the weekend to review the prior two to three months to get an idea of just how high these probabilities are.
And then monitor the concept in coming weeks in your own markets. Perhaps you'll also find the overnight high or overnight low provide nice targets for early trade opportunity.
Please realise though – this is NOT the setup. The concept we're discussing here is simply selection of a high probability target. Take whatever setups you normally take from the open. Manage risk as you normally would, because they won't all work. But when they do work, the fact that the target is backed by some really high probability stats, can make it quite easy to hold.
Sometimes they work really well:
But occasionally, not so well.
The very next day fails to reach both the ONH and ONL. If you held a trade for either of these targets, it would have fallen well short.
There are NEVER certainties. No matter how high the probability, some targets will fall on the losing side of the stats. So manage risk, as per normal. And expect a challenge. If it hits the target quickly, as it sometimes will, consider it a bonus.
Happy trading,
Lance Beggs
