One of the great things about being involved in trading education is that it provides me with the ability to chat with a LOT of developing traders.
Common themes appear over time. This is one of them…
"Can you review this trade. It's a trade idea which I thought was good, but it just didn't work out."
They want to know where they failed with their analysis or decision making. They want to know what they did wrong.
But often, there was nothing wrong with their analysis or decision making.
Here's the reality of this game – we won't always get it right.
But we don't have to.
That is not what this game is about.
I can understand it. We're wired that way. We like to win. We don't like to lose.
We like to be right in our analysis and trade decisions. We don't like to be wrong.
And there's a whole technical analysis and trading education industry out there, which promises to "show you how to find winning trades".
But that's not what this game is about.
It's not about being right.
Not EVERY TIME.
It's about profiting over a SERIES OF TRADES.
A series that includes both winning trades AND losing trades.
It's about ensuring that when you are right you take as much out of the market as you can. And when you're wrong you cut the loss as much and as quickly as you can. So that, when the whole series of trades is done, the end result is a profit.
Let's look at a very short series of trades from Wednesday night. It's a sequence in Crude Oil which occurred in the hour immediately following the Crude Oil Inventories report.
This is a very low timeframe. And it's high volatility, fast pace stuff. Don't be put off by that if you trade other markets, other timeframes, or in fact other strategies. The concept still applies. It's not about being right. It's about managing the winners and losers such that you profit over a series of trades.
In this sequence, EVERY TRADE ENTRY DECISION I MADE, EXCEPT ONE, WAS WRONG.
But it still provides a profit.
Stop trying to be right.
Instead, try to find the places on the chart where you can win bigger (when right) than you lose (when wrong).
It's only a slight shift in perspective. But it makes a massive difference in how you see this game.
Happy trading,
Lance Beggs
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Awesome article, thank you.
Did you trade this market strictly due to the report that came out? Or is it a market that you have in a list of favorites?
Yes. I’ve focused mostly on YM or NQ in recent times, and left CL out of much of my trading. One of the things I decided on my recent holidays was that I’d like to reintroduce CL, 6E and 6B. At the very least just looking at them in the sequences immediately following key news events. At other times I can focus on YM or NQ. (Ideally I’d like to monitor and trade all at the same time. My brain just can’t handle more than two at a time though. And really, I find that I perform best with only one. So I’ll probably only look at CL/6E/6B after news events. That’s the current plan anyway.)
Would you say that the best time to trade futures markets are either at the open or after news releases? May I ask what the advantage is, or rather what it is you’re looking for as you switch the primary markets you trade? You mentioned re-introducing CL, 6E, and 6B. So i’m guessing you ditched them at some point.
Not so much ditched them, but rather I just can’t focus on that many at once, so I needed to prioritise towards the markets that I feel “flow the best” for me. That is, the best combination of pace, directional conviction and liquidity. That is, more often than not, the emini indices.
As to “what is the best time to trade these markets”, it’s really dependent upon how you want to trade. As with the comments above, it’s whatever time gives that best combination of pace, directional conviction and liquidity, that really “fits” how you want to trade.
For me, a big requirement is a directional market. So yes, the best times are often post-news or post-market open. For others, they might prefer quieter and more rangebound periods, perhaps pre-open or later in the session when some structure is already established. There is no right or wrong. Just find what fits you the best.
I see, thank you very much, I appreciate it.
Hello,
I find this web site a wonderful! place to be every day if you want to grow up as a trader. Not enough words to thank for everything I can find here! I read and I try to understand. I love what I read and I would like to apply it in my trading and make it “mine”. Just that I don’t know where to start from. Still confused and not sure I am able to analyse bar by bar.
Hi Audray,
Thanks for your great feedback. I’m pleased you’re enjoying my site. And that I can have some positive part on your trading journey. 🙂
It is a whole LOT of information. Well over 450 articles so far. That’s crazy.
“Just that I don’t know where to start from. Still confused…”
The starting point is with the YTC Price Action Trader.
http://www.ytcpriceactiontrader.com/
It will provide the strategy and a growth & development plan. Everything on the site is better read and understood within the context of the YTC Price Action Trader.
Cheers,
Lance