I’d like to share an email provided by a YTC-newsletter reader, Alex, in response to the recent article on post-session analysis. In this email, Alex presents a method he used to improve his trading through effective post-session analysis and review. All effective review involves (in my opinion) some form of comparison of actual performance with hindsight performance. Alex offers a great technique for achieving this aim.
Thanks Alex… Great stuff.
Email extract…
I would like to share an element of post-session analysis which I came up with by accident (many good things happen that way, e.g. 3M sticky notes 😉
I am usually printing out unmarked candlestick charts at the end of the day, cover them with a blank sheet, and uncover bar by bar, marking my analysis and entries. I would then mark my trade management decisions too (moving SL and taking (partial) exits or making add-ons to the position. One day I printed, by mistake, 3 copies of the same chart. I used one for the analysis on that day; the other two copies were left on the table. A few days later, I printed "fresh" (then current) charts out and put them on the table on top of those extra "leftover" copies from a few days earlier.
I then started doing my bar-by-bar analysis, and at the end of it thought that some charts looked familiar. It was then that I realized that there were some old charts in that batch. Out of curiosity, I compared freshly marked chart with my analysis of the same chart which I made a few days earlier. I was surprised to see that only a half of the setups on both charts were "overlapping" (i.e. were marked in the same way). That made me think.
I started doing that as a deliberate exercise: print out 2-3 copies of a chart, do analysis on that day and keep the other copies for a few days, then analyze them again. Gradually, I realized that I can consistently mark certain types of setups. I decided to focus more on those setups as the ones I could recognize better. Gradually, I increased consistency of my analysis to about 70%. During that exercise, the most consistent setups were distilled and my trading is now centered around them.
With that trick my thought was (still is) – if I cannot achieve at least 70-75% consistency with identifying setups during a bar-by-bar analysis on a printed chart, how can I get it right with all the pressure of live trading.
Another trick to share: I grab a snapshot of each setup live (I use http://www.techsmith.com/jing/) to be able to review it at a "face value" – when you review trades post factum seeing how things indeed developed, it’s hard not to allow the "hindsight bias" to cloud your analysis. i.e. sometimes a setup looks bad with a hindsight, but makes perfect sense when taken – even great setups do fail from time to time.
Never though of doing market replays of trades days or weeks later. Good suggestion. Will try.
Thanks Mack 10, I’m glad you got value out of the article. 🙂