Monday started with some obvious expectations.

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis> 

It’s a simple plan to start the session.

A sideways trend in the pre-market, with clear and obvious range boundaries to trade off (BPB / PB) as the market drives hard for either gap fill or gap continuation.

But wait!

Do you remember this from back in February? 

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

And this example of expected volatility expansion… that just didn’t – https://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/arguably-the-most-important-part-of-any-analysis/.

Arguably, the most important part of any analysis – “How will I know if I’m wrong?”.

There are no certainties.

And by asking, “How will I know if I’m wrong?”, I have opened my mind to the potential that I could be wrong.

This allows quicker recognition, quicker acceptance. And if fortune smiles upon me, the possibility to adjust my plan and adapt to the actual market context.

Still on the 5m chart…

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis> 

But it’s all good.

I expected a momentum drive either higher or lower. But my ego is not so fixed on being right that I’m unwilling to accept any alternates.

Quicker recognition. Quicker acceptance. Quicker adjustment of the plan.

The 1m trading timeframe:

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis>

Back to the 5m view… 

<image: Arguably the Most Important Part of any Analysis> 

You know you won’t get every trade idea right. So why do you stubbornly hold onto that trade idea longer than necessary, causing more damage to your account?

Master the art of being wrong.

Finish your analysis by asking yourself a question: “How will I know if I’m wrong?”

Then recognise it. Accept it. Reassess with this new information. And adapt.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

 


 

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