From social media on Wednesday…

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis>

Ok, I’m not going to argue whether it is or is not the MOST important part.

Let’s just accept that it’s an important part.

And that it MUST be a part of your thinking if you want to operate most effectively in the markets.

There was a brief discussion following last week’s Metagame Trap Entry article about why our analysis doesn’t work ALL the time. And a question: “I just wonder what your explanation would be if the trade had gone South?”

Really? What do you think?

Clearly it’s a sign that either I was wrong in my analysis or my timing & execution. Or something caused a shift in sentiment after my entry.

Recognise it. Accept it. Reassess with this new information. And move on.

If your ego is so invested in it’s “need to be right” then this is not the game for you.

The market will destroy you.

YOUR FRAGILE EGO will destroy you.

Let’s look at the market leading into Tuesday’s session.

The following was sent out by social media.

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis> 

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis>

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis>

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis> 

It’s still the metagame, but on a much larger scale than last week’s article.

Everyone LONG is WRONG.

As they scramble to exit their positions, it helps to drive the market lower. And it helps to drive my trade to profits.

BUT…

ALWAYS…

IN THE BACK OF MY MIND…

“How will I know if I’m wrong?”

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis>

There are no certainties.

And by asking, “How will I know if I’m wrong?”, I have opened my mind to the potential that I could be wrong.

This allows quicker recognition, quicker acceptance. And if fortune smiles upon me, the possibility to adjust my plan and adapt to the actual market context.

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis>

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis>

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis>

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis> 

Can I say here… seriously… you will NOT be successful in this game until you’re absolutely 100% comfortable being WRONG.

Accept it.

And keep those losses small.

So that you’re still in the game when the market sets up the next opportunity.

<image: Arguably the most important part of any analysis>

You don’t have to win on every trade. So why do you expect to?

You don’t have to get every trade idea right? So why do you expect to?

Master the art of being wrong.

Finish your analysis by asking yourself a question: “How will I know if I’m wrong?”

Then recognise it. Accept it. Reassess with this new information. And move on.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

Related Articles:


Similar Posts

5 Comments

  1. Lovely article Lance.
    I find myself too often trying to prove my thesis is right as you described.
    The think is that I know it is the wrong way of thinking but those conflicting interests can be a very powerful force on your trading if you don’t quickly become aware of it while trading. They become all too clear after your disastrous day.
    Thank you for the reinforcement. Being stopped can serve you well if you recognized the market is saying something to you and you can relate to its language.

    1. Thanks George,
      Without doubt this is one of the hardest breakthroughs to achieve. We all know it’s the right way to think, but it takes time to put it into practice.
      Best of luck,
      Lance

  2. I don’t know where the discussion (following last week’s Metagame Trap Entry article about why our analysis doesn’t work ALL the time. And a question: “I just wonder what your explanation would be if the trade had gone South?”) took place. If I had known, I probably would have contributed. But I will pitch in that I think this idea of Metatrading is an excellent observation and a valid route to follow in trading analysis.
    Just my two pennies worth.

    1. Thanks Art. It was just a brief twitter conversation with a trader. Nothing major, although they seemed to discount the idea simply because it didn’t work all the time. I personally find it an incredibly effective analysis and decision making tool. I’m glad to hear you find value as well. But we must always remember – it’s not perfect (we still have to make discretionary calls). Thankfully though… it doesn’t need to be.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.