Ok, not really.

But the market participants have memory. And they have somewhat predictable human nature.

And that is what leads to patterns in structure creating familiar outcomes. And the saying that the market doesn’t repeat, it rhymes.

We saw this in a prior article: The Market Rhymes (AKA Don’t Screw Up the Second Opportunity)

I was reminded of this concept again on Monday, as the pre-session price action set up in a manner that felt strangely familiar.

And in a manner that made my initial directional bias quite an easy decision.

Let’s start by going back a little further and looking at the prior day, Friday 5th August. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) day!

We’ll use the 15 minute chart to fit more data on the image. Loss of “detail” will not matter. It’s the bigger-picture structure that is important.

<image: The market has memory>

Ok, so nothing surprising there. NFP does that.

What is interesting though, is what followed.

<image: The market has memory>

<image: The market has memory>

<image: The market has memory>

So we had (a) pre-session trading in the vicinity of the prior day’s high, (b) a strong bearish momentum drive just prior to the session open, and (c) opportunity available LONG, fading the pre-open momentum drive.

And then Monday sets up.

<image: The market has memory>

The bearish momentum drive looks small in comparison to the NFP release. But it still had some serious “WOW” factor. Here’s the 1 minute view:

<image: The market has memory>

<image: The market has memory>

<image: The market has memory>

<image: The market has memory>

<image: The market has memory>

See here for BOF, PB, CPB Setups..

And keep an eye on your market. When a significant event occurs one day and then the market setups up the next day with similar structure… be ready for that same opportunity. The market has memory. Be sure to use yours as well.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

PS. If you missed the earlier link, check out this prior article on the same topic. The Market Rhymes (AKA Don’t Screw Up the Second Opportunity)

 


 

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5 Comments

    1. Thank you Jana. I appreciate the kind words. Though I’m just someone perhaps a little further along the journey, hoping to help others along the way.
      Best of luck with your trading,
      Lance.

  1. Hi Lance,

    If you don’t mind sharing, what’s the typical spread and commission that you incur on (say) EURUSD with your account? I ask this because of the nature of scalps that you tend to take. My style is similar and was wondering what sort of pips (pipettes) should I be looking for a breakeven.

    Thanks,
    ~C.

    1. Hi C, It must be close to a decade since I last traded EURUSD or in fact any spot forex pair. I’m trading futures, currently NQ with the spread typically one tick and commissions less than one tick. A single tick of profit covers costs. Note that this is not a recommendation for futures over forex. It’s just the market that I found best for me.

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